Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) are fresh off of the wrong end of an upset in front of the nation's and Taylor Swift's eyes, dropping to the once-upon-a-time 2-5 Green Bay Packers. Mahomes managed to complete just 21 of 33 passes (63.6%) for a measly 210 yards, managing only one touchdown to match his interception.
In Week 14 odds they return home to host the Buffalo Bills (6-6), who find themselves surprisingly desperate for a win this week after dropping three of their last four and four of their last six.
Can Mahomes get things back on track and take advantage of a hobbled Bills defense? Or will the Bills give Mahomes and company another hard week to fight through?
Continue reading for free Patrick Mahomes odds and NFL picks and predictions for the Week 14 Bills vs Chiefs matchup on Sunday, December 10th.
If you want a full breakdown of the game, check out our Bills vs. Chiefs predictions!
Patrick Mahomes Week 14 prop picks
- Over 0.5 interceptions
- Over 0.5 interceptions + Over 29.5 rushing yards + McKinnon Over 16.5 receiving yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes Week 14 prop pick
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)
After last week's dud performance and loss, Patrick Mahomes has added fuel to the fire that suggests he and the Kansas City Chiefs' offense seemingly can't get it done against any defense that isn't among the league's worst.
His best performances on the season have come against the Raiders (18th in pass defense DVOA), Bears (25th), Chargers (27th), Broncos (28th), throwing for 10 TDs and just two interceptions in those games. In all other games, he has thrown to a 12:8 TD/INT ratio.
As we've covered extensively in past spotlights Mahomes' struggles taking care of the ball this season have been extensive, as his 2.3% interception rate this season marks his worst as a full-season starter.
But his interception prop market has not reflected that. Despite throwing for ten interceptions in 12 games, you can find the Over on that prop at even money. Until that market corrects, we will continue to capitalize on it.
Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes Week 14 same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Patrick Mahomes Over 29.5 rushing yards
Jerick McKinnon Over 16.5 receiving yards
One of the easiest ways to extract value in the player prop market is to understand projected usage in the event of injuries to starters. Isiah Pacheco is out for Sunday's matchup (and even potentially longer), opening up opportunities for the rest of the backfield.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be the first name people gravitate towards, but it should be Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon is returning after missing the last two games with an injury, and couldn't be returning at a more opportune time between Pacheco's absence and the matchup in front of him.
The Buffalo Bills have surrendered an average of 46.6 receiving yards to opposing running backs this year, which is good for the fourth-worst mark in the league.
For the third leg of this same-game parlay, we'll be taking advantage of a recent deficiency that has popped up in the Bills defense. Buffalo has been below league average in terms of containing quarterbacks' rushing production, ranking 19th on the year in rushing yards allowed to the position.
But possibly due to injuries across the defense, they've been much worse as of late. From Weeks 1 to 8, they allowed just 14.6 rushing yards per game, which was good for 11th-best in the league. Since then they've allowed almost double that, with their 28.8 yards allowed ranking sixth-worst in that span.
If the Chiefs' pass catchers continue to struggle to get open, we should expect Mahomes to (continue to) take off and pick up some yards along the way.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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