We’re officially in the NFL stretch drive, and postseason seeding and playoff berths aren’t the only results being settled on the field. Players are also chasing records, statistical milestones, and contract incentives.
Pinpointing these incentives is a popular part of handicapping NFL player props at this point of the season, too.
Here’s a look at a handful of NFL players with a little extra on the line in Week 16.
Week 16 Milestone props
Myles Garrett to record a sack
At least the Cleveland Browns have Myles Garrett, and the six-time Pro Bowler is chasing down the single-season sacks record with three games to play to give the Cleveland faithful something to root for after another lost year.
Garrett is just 1.5 sacks shy of the 22.5 sacks record held by Hall of Famer Michael Strahan and Pittsburgh Steelers star T.J. Watt.
Cleveland has the Buffalo Bills on tap at home in Week 16, and Buffalo ranks fourth in both pass block win rate and PFF pass block grade, so I expect Garrett to set the new record at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.
If you're more bullish on Garrett in Week 16, FanDuel is offering him to record 1.25+ sacks at +180.
Trey McBride Over 7.5 receptions
Arizona Cardinals star Trey McBride is 11 receptions short of the single-season receptions record for tight ends, and he’s coming off a 12-catch week against an elite Houston Texans defense.
McBride and the Cards face another tough test in Week 16, with the Atlanta Falcons allowing the second-fewest receptions and fifth-lowest catch percentage to tight ends this season.
Still, look for Arizona to funnel passes McBride’s way. He’s averaged 10.9 targets per game dating back to Week 6, after all. If you want to take a stab at him getting close to the record in Week 16, bet365 has his alt receptions of 10+ listed at +300.
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Contract incentives
Javonte Williams Over 6.5 receiving yards
The Dallas Cowboys definitely won one transaction this season, and that was bringing in running back Javonte Williams. He already picked up a $250,000 bonus for scoring his 12th touchdown in Week 15, and the first-year back is just nine yards from scrimmage shy of picking up another $250,000 for hitting the 1,250 mark.
Williams and the ‘Boys go up against a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense in Week 16, but this contract incentive cashing in is a matter of when, not if, especially since his lowest-yardage game this season came when he amassed 34 against the Panthers.
I like taking the flier on Williams going Over 6.5 receiving yards Sunday afternoon, a number he's cleared seven times in 14 games, while the Chargers have consistently allowed 7+ receiving yards to opposing RBs.
Stefon Diggs 3+ receptions
New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs has caught at least three passes in 13 of 14 games to pile up 67 receptions. He’ll earn a healthy $500,000 bonus for reaching 70 for the campaign, and I expect the four-time Pro Bowler to earn the payday on Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens have surrendered the sixth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers, and Diggs has a high-end 21.0% target share in the New England passing attack.
Thursday Night Football bonus
Uchenna Nwosu to record a sack
Seattle Seahawks edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu is 0.5 sacks away from earning a $1 million contract incentive for reaching 9.5 sacks over the past three years. He’s at 9.0 heading into this week’s Thursday Night Football tilt against the Los Angeles Rams.
Considering the Rams have surrendered the third-fewest sacks in the league, Nwosu will likely have to look ahead to more favorable dates with the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers.
Nwosu is +240 at FanDuel to record a sack if you think he gets home to earn the big bonus tonight.
