Sunday night offers a terrific NFL matchup as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
This is a matchup of two quarterbacks who thrive at throwing it all over the field, and after looking at Justin Herbert's odds, I'm backing him to surpass a very reachable passing total in what should be an entertaining contest.
For more NFL picks, read our Steelers vs Chargers predictions for Sunday, November 9.
Justin Herbert prop pick
Justin Herbert best bet: Over 252.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Over the last three games, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been getting ripped apart through the air. Daniel Jones threw for 342 yards in a losing effort last week, but Jordan Love threw for 360 the outing prior as the Packers beat the Steelers.
Before that, it was Joe Flacco tossing 31 completions for 342 yards as the Bengals got the close win over Pittsburgh.
Now the Steelers travel west to take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, and I’m expecting him to have a big game. While he’s only topped 250 yards in four of his nine games this season, the Chargers rank seventh in pass play rate at more than 60% and fifth in passes per game.
Pittsburgh is allowing the third-highest passing rate in the NFL, and the most passes per game. It’s why the Steelers are giving up more than 278 yards a game through the air, most in the league.
The Chargers are 12th in completion rate and sixth in passing yards per game. Herbert has completed at least 65% of his throws in five straight games and has a multitude of weapons with which to shred this Pittsburgh defense.
Aaron Rodgers will keep this game tight, and we should see plenty of points. That will keep Herbert engaged in the second half and help push him close to the 300-yard mark as well.
Justin Herbert same-game parlay
Over 252.5 passing yards
Over 24.5 rushing yards
Oronde Gadsden anytime touchdown
The Steelers have one of the best pass-rush units in the NFL per PFF, and Herbert was sacked six times last week by the Titans. PFF also has the Chargers ranked as one of the worst pass-blocking units in the league.
That’s probably why Herbert’s been taking off more. He ran nine times for 57 yards last week and had 62 yards on seven carries the game before. He’s rushed for at least 24 yards in seven of his nine games this season, and will likely go Over 30 for the sixth time.
Oronde Gadsden has touchdowns in two of his last three games and is tied for second on the Chargers with nine red-zone targets. He’s facing a Pittsburgh defense that ranks third in touchdowns allowed to tight ends per game, and has a very strong chance to post another score here.
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