The Buffalo Bills have a decision to make against the New York Jets in Week 18.
Does Buffalo rest a banged-up roster, including quarterback Josh Allen, or does it push for a higher playoff seed and hope everything breaks its way? The odds movement could hint at how the Bills play their cards in the season finale.
Let's break down that opening line movement and make some early Jets vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks below.
Jets vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Jets vs Bills spread pick: Jets +11.5
The Buffalo Bills can make a run at the No. 5 seed in the AFC, but would need to beat the New York Jets and have Houston lose to Indianapolis.
Seeing that the Texans are laying double digits at home to the Colts, the Bills may be better suited sitting their starters in the finale. Josh Allen is nursing a foot injury, and Buffalo can’t afford to have its star quarterback sidelined in the postseason.
This spread opened at Bills -13.5, instantly got hacked down to -11.5, and likely isn’t done dropping. Any announcement around the Buffalo starters will take this spread down closer to a field goal.
The Jets are playing for pride — or at least head coach Aaron Glenn is. His first year in New York has been a disaster, and Gang Green just took a one-sided beating from New England on the chin in the home finale.
I’d lean Jets now, knowing the smart move for Buffalo is to protect its key players for the playoffs.
Early Jets vs Bills total pick: Under 39.5
If the Bills bench Allen and the first teamers, we’ll get a QB battle between Mitchell Trubisky and Brady Cook. That doesn’t scream scoring.
This total has already dipped from 40.5 to 39.5, with the next key stop at 37 points. If Buffalo rules out its starters, this number plummets through that and matches up with some other “lost game” totals in Week 18, which are as low as 35.5.
New York running back Breece Hall left Week 17 with a knee injury but said he doesn’t need testing, leaving him questionable for Sunday. He’s the lone bright spot for this Jets offense, especially against this porous Bills run defense.
Jets vs Bills odds
- Jets vs. Bills spread: Bills -11.5
- Jets vs. Bills moneyline: Jets +375, Bills -500
- Jets vs. Bills Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Jets vs Bills
- Jets vs. Bills matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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