The dog days of summer are officially here, which means our daily betting options are drying up. This annual occurrence lines up perfectly with the stretch run to the beginning of another NFL season, meaning peak NFL futures betting season is upon us and I decided to go shopping!
Here are my selections for the best bargains and biggest rip-offs in NFL futures markets for the upcoming 2023 season.
Best bargains
Tua Tagovailoa to win NFL MVP (+2,000 at DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes |  Kansas City Chiefs |
QB | +700 |
| Joe Burrow |  Cincinnati Bengals |
QB | +750 |
| Josh Allen |  Buffalo Bills |
QB | +800 |
| Jalen Hurts |  Philadelphia Eagles |
QB | +1,100 |
| Justin Herbert |  L.A. Chargers |
QB | +1,300 |
| Trevor Lawrence |  Jacksonville Jaguars |
QB | +1,400 |
| Lamar Jackson |  Baltimore Ravens |
QB | +1,500 |
| Aaron Rodgers |  New York Jets |
QB | +1,600 |
| Justin Fields |  Chicago Bears |
QB | +2,000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa |  Miami Dolphins |
QB | +2,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 10, 2023.
Be prepared to hear “if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy...” a few thousand times when hearing people analyze the Miami Dolphins in the build-up to the season. If he does remain healthy, he should be near the top of the NFL MVP odds board, as he was when he was healthy in 2022.
The injury concerns are fair and they’re accounted for in these odds, but there should also be a lot of optimism for Tua. He took a massive leap under Mike McDaniel and more growth should be expected in his second year in an offense that added complimentary wide receivers Chosen Anderson and Braxton Berrios as well speedy rookie Devon Achane, who’ll likely be a popular sleeper in fantasy drafts.
And, yes, those of you who know me know that I’m a Dolphins fan and will probably scoff at this selection, but the numbers don’t lie. Tua was one of the most efficient QBs in the league last season, edging out Patrick Mahomes to lead the league in passer rating among QBs that played at least 10 games.
Let’s see if that jiu-jitsu training pays off. It if does, Tua should finally 100% establish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
Vikings to win NFC North (+270 at FanDuel)
Make no mistake about it, the Minnesota Vikings severely overachieved in 2022 on their way to winning the division and were 100% worthy of being labelled as a fraud. That said, there’s lots of build on under second-year head coach Kevin O’Connell in what should be viewed as a wide-open division where the preseason darling, Detroit Lions, are being overvalued as the favorite.
Offensively, Minnesota was good but not great last season, but it was on the defensive side of the ball where they were an absolute disgrace. Enter Brian Flores, who will step in and lead a defensive unit that ranked 30th in both points allowed and yards per play allowed.
A big improvement for the defense isn’t totally out of the question, especially when you consider what Flores accomplished as the defensive mastermind during his time as head coach of the Dolphins. Despite taking over a gutted roster that was clearly trying to tank, Miami’s defense saw major improvements in Flores’ three years, most notably going from dead-last in points allowed, to fourth in his first two seasons. That experience and ability should carry over to a Vikings defense that can only get better.
Kenny Pickett Under 3,300.5 passing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 10, 2023.
I’ll fill you guys in on a little secret – Kenny Pickett might not be very good. Pickett is getting a lot of hype for a guy who threw more interceptions than touchdowns last season, while also throwing for under 200 yards in eight of 12 games, including four of his last five. Pickett did get better as the season went on in 2022 and should absolutely improve in his sophomore season, just not to the degree that some may expect. Let’s also consider that topping this total isn’t exactly an easy feat. Of course, remaining healthy is a big part of it, but only 14 quarterbacks went over this number last season.
It doesn’t help matters that highly-criticized offensive coordinator Matt Canada is still calling the shots. Many expected Canada to get a pink slip after Pittsburgh averaged a pitiful 18.1 points per game. Even if Pickett does have the ability to take a big leap in year two, Canada’s stale approach and inability to evolve could hold him back.
Biggest rip-offs
Jets to win the Super Bowl (+1,600 at FanDuel)
This is an absolute joke. The New York Jets are filled with red flags, yet oddsmakers have elevated them to having the seventh best Super Bowl odds, all because they added Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off one of his worst seasons and turns 40 in December, and who also has a losing record in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl well over a decade ago. But hey, he’s motivated now!
Tom Brady has totally distorted everyone’s opinion of the aging quarterback, and I don’t think an MVP-level bounceback from Rodgers is very realistic, especially when you consider he was beat-up with hand and rib injuries in 2022.
He’s obviously a massive upgrade over Zach Wilson (as are 95% of rostered QBs in the NFL), but was this team really a QB away from being a legit Super Bowl contender? Aside from beating Josh Allen, here’s the list of QBs they beat in 2022: Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, Skylar Thompson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Trevor Siemian – not exactly a list of MVP candidates in 2022.
And let’s not forget laughingstock of the league last season, Nathaniel Hackett, will be calling the plays as offensive coordinator. Hackett was in a similar position with the Broncos in 2022, calling the plays for a future Hall of Fame QB in his first season with the team, only to have to turn over play-calling duties prior to getting fired 15 games into the season with four-years remaining on his contract. And a friendly reminder – Hackett didn’t call the plays as OC in Green Bay.
Jaguars to win AFC South (-165 at DraftKings)
Let’s pump the breaks a little bit on the Jacksonville Jaguars, especially as a minus-money favorite to win their division. Should they be favored? Yes, but there’s simply no value with this bet in a division that has a lot of question marks.
The Jags finished strong last season and I can understand the appeal, but they’re up there with the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers for the best odds in division futures markets. I understand that this has just as much to do with the other teams in the AFC South, but I don’t think the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts should be dismissed so quickly. The Titans have +425 odds to win the division and don’t appear ready to accept going into a rebuild. They always get a lot out of very little and I wouldn’t put it past Mike Vrabel to have another winning season with an ugly roster. Tennessee has one of the easiest schedules in the league and unlike the Jags, won’t have to play the Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers.
The Colts (+550) also have the luxury of an easy schedule and could have the second-coming of Lamar Jackson at QB with Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis was one of last season’s biggest underachievers in 2022 and a bounceback this season wouldn’t be shocking.
Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300 at FanDuel)
| Player | Team | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson |  Atlanta Falcons |
RB | +300 |
| Bryce Young |  Carolina Panthers |
QB | +450 |
| C.J. Stroud |  Houston Texans |
QB | +900 |
| Anthony Richardson |  Indianapolis Colts |
QB | +900 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs |  Detroit Lions |
RB | +1,100 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba |  Seattle Seahawks |
WR | +1,400 |
| Jordan Addison |  Minnesota Vikings |
WR | +1,600 |
| Quentin Johnston |  Los Angeles Chargers |
WR | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of July 10, 2023.
Robinson is the favorite to win the award and is clearly a special player, but these odds quite simply are a rip-off when you consider a few factors.
First off, he’ll enter a crowded backfield which features Tyler Allgeier, who’s coming off a successful rookie season, and Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson, who led the team in touchdowns last season.
While Robinson is clearly the top man on the running back depth chart, there will still be plenty of value for the Atlanta Falcons to utilize the other two backs, so don’t expect Robinson to be run into the ground in his rookie season. After investing the seventh overall pick in him, keeping Robinson healthy should be a major priority for the Falcons as durability at the running back position is a never-ending concern – just ask Jets fans about how it went once the team starting to ramp up Breece Hall’s workload last season.
There will also be a lot of competition from rookie quarterbacks Bryce Young (+450) and CJ Stroud (+900), while Anthony Richardson (+900) has an extremely high-ceiling in his first year if he earns the starting role early enough in the season. Given the guaranteed usage at the quarterback position, I think all three offer much better value than Robinson.
Only four of the past 15 winners of this award have been a running back, and I think this pattern will carryover to this season.
That does it for my NFL futures shopping trip, but I’ll undoubtedly have a lot more picks and opinions on all matters related to NFL betting as the season approaches. While one or two of these could blow up in my face – that tends to happen in the predictions business – I’ll continue to dig for more gems in futures markets and will hopefully come out with some big plus-money winners. Best of luck with your bets.
