We’re a month deep into the season, and there’s good value to be had on first touchdown scorers for Sunday’s slate of games. My NFL picks for October 5 share three favorite options to strike first in their games in Week 5.
For more action, check out our weekly TD props!
Best Week 5 first TD scorer props
Wilson (+950)
Carter (+550)
Gibbs (+370)
TD prop #1: Garrett Wilson first TD scorer
Garrett Wilson has had a big season for the Jets this year, with three touchdowns through four weeks of the season, and he’s on track to beat last season’s total of seven.
The reason I'm picking Wilson — besides his excellent form — is the weakness of this Cowboys’ defense, which has been poor against the pass.
Without Micah Parsons, the pass rush has really taken a downward turn, and it’s no surprise the Cowboys have given up the most touchdowns to wide receivers at nine — three more than the next closest team.
TD prop #2: Michael Carter first TD scorer
Opportunity knocks for Michael Carter against the Titans, and the Cardinals’ running back now finds himself as his team’s RB1 thanks to injuries to James Conner and Trey Benson in back-to-back weeks.
Carter has had just one carry this season, but he’s going to get a lot of work, as the coaching staff is really impressed by his attitude.
The last time we saw Carter receive a significant workload for this team was in Week 18 of last year, when he carried the ball 17 times and scored.
Now he has a great chance of finding the end zone, with the Titans tied for the most touchdowns allowed to running backs. Add in the fact the Cards are strong favorites, and Carter to open the scoring looks great.
TD prop #3: Jahmyr Gibbs first TD scorer
Jahmyr Gibbs comes into the game in red-hot form, scoring four touchdowns across the past three weeks. He’s been getting a big workload and a lot of carries, as well as targets. He got 22 touchdowns last season and is one of the very best running backs in the league.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen Jordan Mason score twice against the Bengals, as well as both Bo Nix and Marvin Mims rushing for touchdowns last time out.
This defense is weak against the run, and with the Bengals being the underdogs in the biggest spread of the week, we have to back a Lion to score early and get the first touchdown.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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