NFL First Touchdown Props Week 1: A Bolt of Lightning

Everyone's favorite market is back and better than ever and our NFL expert believes there's plenty of value in the First Touchdown market. Find out who we are backing and why below!

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Sep 7, 2024 • 21:18 ET • 4 min read
J.K. Dobbins Los Angeles Chargers NFL
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Sundays are all about NFL player props and touchdowns and in this particular case, first touchdowns.

Here we’re going hunting for some big prices on players to score the opening touchdowns in their respective games. We have some unusually high Week One odds with a number of players perhaps being underestimated by the market. 

Join me as I break down my favorite NFL picks for Sunday's slate, and be sure to check out our anytime touchdown scorer prop picks.

Week 1 first touchdown scorer props

Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Week 1 first TD picks

First TD prop bet #1: Roschon Johnson

+2,100  at FanDuel

This is speculative as the massive odds would imply but there’s something very intriguing about Roschon Johnson this season. He didn’t set the world alight in his rookie season, scoring just twice but he has one thing the rest of the Chicago Bears’ RB corps don’t — size. He’s considerably heavier than both D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert and could be primed for a season of vulturing TDs.

What better time to start than Week One against the Tennessee Titans? We know the Titans' secondary has been upgraded, so they might prove a tough test for rookie Caleb Williams. Likewise, the Bears were the best team in the NFL against the run last season, meaning the Titans will likely need Will Levis' arm to score the first touchdown and we can’t bank on that. Back the Bears to open the scoring on the ground and back Johnson to be a sneaky goalline play.

Frist TD prop bet #2: Kenneth Walker III

+500  at FanDuel

Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker has been a solid running back since arriving in the league, operating for the team who have always had a strong game as a key part of their identity, even with a change in coaching staff.

Walker faces a Denver Broncos defense that gave up an average of 137.1 rushing yards per game last season, the third-highest total in the NFL. Walker has the quality and the opportunity against a poor rushing defense to open the scoring here.

First TD prop bet #3: JK Dobbins

+1,200  at FanDuel

We’re rounding off our first touchdown trio with another long shot, this time it’s Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins. We know about the struggles that Dobbins has had to remain on the field during his three years in the NFL but we also know how excellent he was when he was on the field. He’s vying with Gus Edwards for carries but it’s Dobbins who has the higher ceiling and is the more electric back.

We know that Jim Harbaugh loves his teams to pound the rock, with a strong ground game key to his coaching identity. Dobbins is the best back on the roster, supported by a good offensive line and he should have a far better chance than the odds suggest of finding the endzone first.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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