The 7-9 Miami Dolphins will be looking to finish off a rocky season strong with seven wins in their final 10 games against a 13-3 New England Patriots team that is still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC on Sunday, January 4.
My early Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks expect the Patriots to take care of business and put away a Dolphins side that always struggles in cold weather.
Dolphins vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Dolphins vs Patriots spread pick: Patriots -10.5
The Miami Dolphins started the season 2-7 but have won six of their last nine games to finish with some dignity on this season. They also benched Tua Tagovailoa for rookie Quinn Ewers, who has held his own in each of the last two weeks.
However, the New England Patriots will be a different beast than the eliminated Cincinnati Bengals and reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Dolphins defense had a solid showing last week, but they just gave up 45 points and 389 yards of total offense the week before to the Bengals. The Patriots have the fifth-ranked scoring offense and the seventh-ranked offense in total yardage. Drake Maye has been on a tear and could very well find himself as the MVP this season.
The Patriots rank first in the NFL in short passing, passing against pressure, and passing without play action. Meanwhile, the Dolphins rank 26th, 30th, and 22nd in those corresponding categories on defense.
This game is also going to be in cold weather, and we know how bad Mike McDaniel has been in cold-weather games as head coach of the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are 1-7 under McDaniel in games played below 40 degrees, with their one win coming this season at the New York Jets. He is also 1-14 in road games against teams with a .500 record or better.
The Patriots will take care of business at home and continue their hot streak on offense.
Early Dolphins vs Patriots total pick: Over 45.5
This is an Over I am playing strictly because of how many points I think the Patriots will score.
They have scored 28 or more points in each of their last four games, and seven of their last 10 games. Even the three where they didn’t score 28, they scored 24, 26, and 27.
The Dolphins defense has played decently down the stretch against some bad offenses but have been torched by the good ones. They have allowed 21.1 points per game on the season, but 29.7 points per game in their nine games against top-half offenses.
The Patriots scored 33 points in their Week 2 matchup with the Dolphins, and that was much before Maye and the offense really got rolling. It is very likely they can repeat that performance, if not improve upon it, and approach the 40s on their own.
The Patriots have hit the game total Over in each of their last four games and eight of their last 10 games. The Over has also hit in three of the last four matchups between these two teams dating back to last season.
The Dolphins shouldn’t need to do much for this Over to hit.
Dolphins vs Patriots odds
- Dolphins vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -10.5
- Dolphins vs. Patriots moneyline: Dolphins +500, Patriots -700
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Dolphins vs Patriots
- Dolphins vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Foxboro, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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