The Washington Commanders head to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5.
Both offenses will have opportunities to shine in my Commanders vs. Chargers props, and that includes Justin Herbert finding success through the air and Jacory Croskey-Merritt eclipsing his rushing total.
Let’s look at my top prop bets for this Week 5 showdown in my free NFL picks for Sunday, October 5.
Commanders vs Chargers props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Justin Herbert |
Over 262.5 passing yards | -114 |
| Oronde Gadsen |
Over 2.5 receptions | +128 |
 Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
Over 32.5 rush yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Justin Herbert Over 262.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert put up big numbers over the first three games of the season, but he looked human against the Giants last week as he threw two interceptions in a 21-18 loss.
The Los Angeles Chargers will need their quarterback at his best on Sunday, especially against a Washington Commanders team that’s also capable of putting up points.
Luckily for Herbert, Washington has allowed a league-worst 13.3 yards per completion. The only thing that has allowed that weakness to stay somewhat contained has been the fact that opponents haven’t thrown the ball all that much against them.
Los Angeles is averaging 37.2 passing attempts per game, and Herbert has thrown the ball more than 40 times in each of his last two contests. The Chargers will keep the ball in Herbert’s hands, and I expect him to pad the stats sheet on Sunday.
Prop bet #2: Oronde Gadsden Over 2.5 receptions
Rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden had to wait a couple of weeks to be included in the Chargers' offense, but the results have been excellent since then. Over his last two weeks, the former Syracuse Orange standout has caught seven passes for 62 yards.
There are signs that this production could increase as the year goes on. For one, tight end Will Dissly remains questionable for Sunday’s game with a knee injury — though Gadsden’s best game came with Dissly in the lineup.
Gadsden has also been getting rave reviews from the analytics community, ranking as the 13th-highest graded rookie by PFF this season.
As I noted in the Herbert pick, we can expect the Chargers to find success in the passing game. Gadsden will take advantage of this: he’s a far better pass catcher than he is as a blocker in the running game, so his snaps will come primarily on passing downs.
While the 2.5 reception line is about right, I can’t ignore getting a solid plus number on the Over.
Prop bet #3: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 32.5 rushing yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt will fare well against a Chargers defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per rush.
He may also be in line for an increased role in the running game, with Jayden Daniels returning from a knee injury, which could lead head coach Dan Quinn to call the game more safely for his star quarterback.
Although Washington initiates a committee-based rushing attack, a total of 32.5 rushing yards is surprisingly low for Croskey-Merritt, who is averaging 43 yards per game and has gone over this total both with and without Daniels in the lineup.
This is a decent bet in a vacuum, and if there’s any effort at all to protect Daniels in the offensive play-calling, Croskey-Merritt should easily hit his Over.
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