Week 6 wraps up with a 52.5-point total on Monday Night Football and plenty of touchdown potential. Injuries have clouded both depth charts, but they've also opened the door for some lesser-known names to deliver prime-time value at big prices.
These are my best Commanders vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer predictions and NFL picks for Week 6 Monday Night Football.
Best Commanders vs 49ers anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jayden Daniels anytime TD |
30% |
 Jacob Cowing anytime TD |
19% |
| First TD: Brock Purdy |
5% |
| Long shot: Dyami Brown |
7% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Commanders touchdown pick: Jayden Daniels
With Jacory Croskey-Merritt sidelined, Washington's running game has taken a hit, but Jayden Daniels can pick up the slack.
The QB showed little concern about his elbow in his first game back from injury, rushing nine times for 103 yards and two scores. Both TDs came from outside the red zone (26 and 38 yards), but he also has five red-zone carries in three games.
Daniels' rushing total has jumped from 31.5 to 39.5 this week, showing just how much interest there is in his legs. I'd play his TD down to 3x.
49ers touchdown pick: Jacob Cowing
I grabbed this at 5.25x and have the fair price closer to 4.8x with Deebo Samuel sitting.
Deebo exited in the third quarter last week and has been ruled out for Monday. With Demarcus Robinson also out and Mike Evans questionable, Jacob Cowing is an appealing down-the-order TD target in an elite offense facing a Commanders defense that ranks in the bottom six in EPA per dropback.
Cowing played 92% of the snaps in three-WR sets last week and could see his role expand into two-WR packages with Deebo sidelined. He also out-snapped both Brandin Cooks and Jordan Watkins, giving him a legitimate path to more opportunities Monday night.
First touchdown scorer pick: Brock Purdy
The 49ers have one of the best-scripted offenses in football and have scored the game's first TD in four straight contests. Brock Purdy has accounted for one of those scores, and backing him here makes sense given how heavily I'm invested in his rushing Over.
Purdy has 15 carries over his last two games and has rushed for 29+ yards in four of five outings this season. There's legitimate QB touchdown equity in this matchup, and with Purdy buried down the first-TD-scorer board at 20/1, he's circled on my card.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Dyami Brown
This is a great 13/1 long-shot TD pick with Stefon Diggs questionable after missing Week 5. Dyami Brown has run around 50% of the routes this season and should be considered the WR3/4 in this matchup if Diggs sits. If Treylon Burks is 7x to score, Brown shouldn't be double the price when the two are playing similar snap shares and running a comparable number of routes.
It's a 52-point total, and Daniels makes this offense infinitely better than Marcus Mariota. THE BLITZ has Brown as the best +EV touchdown play on the board, with a fair price of 9.5x. I'll take a 50% snap and route share at 10/1 or better almost every day.
Commanders vs 49ers touchdown combo
Brock Purdy
Jayden Daniels
I'm running the double-quarterback touchdown combo every Monday night, and this might be my most optimistic spot of the season. Both Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels have legitimate rushing TD equity.
Purdy has rushed for 29+ yards in four of five games (4-1 O/U on his rushing total) and has already found the end zone once. Daniels showed last week that he's still willing to use his legs after returning from an elbow injury, piling up 103 rushing yards and two TDs. Both anytime-TD picks are +EV at their current prices, according to the projections.
Four quarterbacks have scored a touchdown on Monday Night Football through five games, and this combo system already cashed at 14x in Week 3.
- TD picks: 18-53 -4.41 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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