Colts vs Jaguars Week 2 Props: Jacksonville's Passing Game Steals the Show

The AFC South may not be the sexiest division but it has plenty of intrigue, with the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts retooling while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans attempt another rebuild.

We'll get a little of both in Florida this week, as the Indianapolis Colts head on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indy tripped out of the gates to plant its lips firmly on its sister, with a tie against lowly Houston a week ago. The Jags, meanwhile, fell victim to a Commanding performance from Carson Wentz and new-look Washington.

Indy cannot get off to another slow start after last season's tragedy, which makes this divisional game all the more interesting. We break down the prop market with our best NFL player prop picks for the Colts vs. Jaguars. 

Colts vs Jaguars prop picks

• Taylor Over 120.5 scrimmage yards
• Kirk Over 58.5 receiving yards
• Lawrence longest completion Over 34.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Colts vs Jaguars Week 2 props

Now give me the rock 

Jonathan Taylor established himself as the NFL's best running back last year, complementing down-to-down efficiency with elite big-play ability.

What had been missing, at least in comparison to most of the NFL's other elite backs, was a role in the passing game. Slightly understandable, with Nyheim Hines a superb change of pace back, but it felt like an opportunity to scheme one of the league's best playmakers into space lost.

In that regard, Taylor's usage in Week 1 was highly exciting in relation to his role moving forward. Taylor saw seven targets, the second-highest single-game total of his career, turning it into a modest four catches and 14 yards. However, if anything is likely to change on that line, it's the slight 3.5 yards per catch — not the targets, which came in a sustainable manner.

During Taylor's first two seasons, he was a bit-part player in the passing game. He averaged fewer than 2.5 targets per game (2.375) with his routes run hovering around 40% of passing plays. Week 1, however, featured Taylor's involvement reflecting his fellow elite-tier tailbacks, with the former Badger running a route on 61% of dropbacks.

Jonathan Taylor's 61% route participation was a big development in Week 1. Handled half of the long-down-distance & two-minute offense. Great news.

The RB Utilization Kings ????

Christian McCaffrey ????
Darrell Henderson ????
Saquon Barkley ????
Dalvin Cook ????
Leonard Fournette ???? pic.twitter.com/OSPdg5nWrm

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 14, 2022

If Taylor is going to be utilized in the passing game even close to as often as his fellow high-end backs — to go along with his efficiency and volume as a runner, and penchant for explosive plays — he's going to be a threat to smash his scrimmage yards prop week after week, until books catch up to an increased role in the passing game. 

This pick is, also, largely script-proof. If the Colts are dominating the Jags, as they should, then Taylor will be at the heart of Indy's clock-draining. If they're chasing the game — like they were last week — then Taylor will instead be at the heart of the comeback effort, as he was last week when he totaled 15 touches after Indy had fallen behind 20-3.

Taylor is among the surest things in football at the moment, whether you're a Colts team trying to find your way out of the QB wilderness or a grateful fantasy football manager, and has topped this scrimmage yards total in nine of his last 18 games. Against Jacksonville, that reliability will extend to Over bettors, too. 

Jonathan Taylor Prop: Over 120.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)

Steal the show

One of a number of receivers shining in their debut for their new team last week was the Jags' Christian Kirk. Yet, after a six-catch, 117-yard Week 1, we're looking at just a 58.5-yard total this week. That seems to be devoid of context from the last six months. 

In free agency and the draft, teams speak volumes with their spending, and in free agency, the Jaguars broke the receiver market by giving Kirk a four-year, $72 million deal. Overpay or not, that spoke of Jacksonville's expectations of the former Card. 

After a summer of steady hype, Kirk made his debut in Week 2 of the preseason... and played the part of a team's No. 1 receiver in every way. He was on the field for 82% of Trevor Lawrence's snaps, earned a 38% target share, and finished with five catches for 54 yards in his brief appearance.  

Sure enough, the constant drumbeat of Kirk as a No. 1 receiver played out in Week 1. Kirk drew 12 targets on a 32% target share, turning it into six catches for 117 yards. And, as promised, Kirk was able to consistently separate as Jacksonville lined him up in the slot on over 90% of his snaps. 

This number is simply too low — considerably too low. This isn't about Kirk, Indy's defense, or game script.

This is about a No. 1 wide receiver, who we have received every indication will get a massive target share, needing just roughly 50% of his Week 1 production to go Over this week's total. The opportunity will be presented and Kirk will cash. 

Christian Kirk Prop: Over 58.5 receiving yards (-114 at DraftKings)

The long arm of TLaw

After a shipwrecked first season and development stalled due to a charlatan head coach, Trevor Lawrence is looking to launch his career in '22 under head coach Doug Pederson. Launching is something the pair did a fair bit last week, with Pederson stressing defenses vertically more frequently than last year's offense did under Darrell Bevell.

In Week 1, Lawrence led the NFL in intended air yards while his average on a per-throw basis rose by over a full yard compared to last season. He had a trio of completions over 20 yards, including a longest strike of 49 yards to Kirk.  

Against the Colts in Week 2, that explosive play element through the air will again be there for the Jags to take. Indy is amid a schematic change on defense, as it departs from the 2-high, Tampa-2 offshoot Matt Eberflus ran and adapts the single-high/cover-3 defense of Gus Bradley. 

That defense, made famous by Pete Carroll in Seattle, is focused on keeping the ball in front and not letting anything get behind the deep safety. It also, however, relies on perfect cohesion in the secondary — and falls apart when communication and assignment breakdowns occur, with zone defenders passing receivers off to unknowing teammates.  

We've seen the scheme's weaknesses be glaring over the years in Seattle when it was bleeding in new players or when Earl Thomas was injured. And, we saw it last week as the Colts adapt to a new defense. Hardly one to push the ball downfield — he finished with the fifth-lowest average air yards per attempt last season — Davis Mills was able to exploit coverage breakdowns multiple times last week, completing passes of 42 and 22 yards against this defense.

Lawrence and the Jags' offense will be much more proactive in seeking out explosive plays than Houston was, and with Lawrence's arm talent against this defense, he'll exploit the coverage breakdowns when they inevitably arise. 

Trevor Lawrence Prop: Longest completion Over 34.5 yards (-115)

Pages related to this topic