A non-conference contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills looks like one of the most entertaining games on the NFL Week 11 odds board.
Both teams need to bounce back after rough losses this past weekend, and the health of Tampa Bay’s offense will go a long way in dictating where this spread and total end up come kickoff.
Here are my early Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for November 10.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Buccaneers vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Buccaneers vs Bills spread pick: Bills -5.5
If you expect the Buffalo Bills to rally after a rough outing in Miami, then grab the home side now below the key number of six points.
The look-ahead line before the results of Week 10 was Bills -6.5, and there’s no shortage of support for Josh Allen & Co. these days, especially at home. Since 2020, Buffalo is 17-6 straight up off a loss with a 12-9-2 against the spread record in those spots.
There are a few factors that will manipulate this market ahead of the 1 p.m. ET kickoff — none more than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' injury report. The Buccaneers battled the New England Patriots with several players on the offensive side of the ball in Week 10.
Not only were they missing RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin (who remain questionable for Week 11), but the offensive line was running thin before and during that loss.
All eyes will be on Tampa’s practices this week, and if Godwin or Irving can return, we could see this spread shorten up. If it's held out or limited by the time Thursday rolls around, the spread will swell in favor of the home side.
Early Buccaneers vs Bills total pick: Over 49.5
This Over/Under total opened as high as 50.5 points Sunday night, just shy of the key number of 51.
The injuries mentioned above are anchoring this Over/Under at the moment, as is a notable injury to Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, who has become one of Allen's favorite targets — particularly in the end zone. He’s questionable after leaving the loss to the Dolphins with a hamstring ailment.
Much like the spread, the total will adjust to injury reports from both sides later in the week. Another factor that could influence this Over/Under is the extended forecast for Orchard Park.
As of Monday, early weather models are calling for rain in Buffalo with temperatures in the mid-40s. There could also be winds at 11 mph with gusts of 21 mph, which can make kicking and deeper passing plays problematic. Things will change over the week, but this is something to keep an eye on as we approach the weekend.
When healthy and given clear conditions, these teams are more than equipped to top this current total. And as Tampa Bay showed on Sunday, even with limitations, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs can put up points. I like the Over below that key stop of 51 points.
Buccaneers vs Bills odds
- Buccaneers vs. Bills spread: Bills -5.5
- Buccaneers vs. Bills moneyline: Buccaneers +215, Bills -260
- Buccaneers vs. Bills Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bills
- Buccaneers vs. Bills matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
