The Buffalo Bills head to the Sunshine State on Sunday to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card Round.
My Bills vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks are betting on a big game from superstar quarterback Josh Allen, but that won't be enough to overcome Buffalo's terrible run defense. See how that factors into my Bills vs. Jaguars same-game parlay below.
Our best Bills vs Jaguars SGP for Wild Card Weekend
Playoff football often comes down to defense and being able to run the football. While the Buffalo Bills have an elite rushing attack, they face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that's fourth in the league in defensive rush DVOA and has allowed a league-low 85.6 ypg on the ground.
On the other hand, the Bills have been gashed for 136.2 rushing yards per game while ranking 31st in DVOA against the run. With the Jaguars boasting a significantly better defense and home-field advantage, I'll back them on the spread as short +1.5 dogs.
If they want to win, they'll have to exploit that god-awful Bills run defense, which is why I'm backing Travis Etienne Jr. to go Over his rushing yard total in this SGP. Etienne rushed for 1,107 yards this year and Jacksonville's vastly improved offensive line has been creating holes up front.
I'm expecting the Jags to contain James Cook on the ground, which will force Buffalo to air it out with Josh Allen. A neutral or negative game script will lead to the Bills quarterback eclipsing his passing yard total in a losing cause.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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