Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton came into this season with sky-high expectations after being taken in the first round.
Although both rookie running backs have struggled so far, that allows our NFL picks to bet them at a buy-low number in Week 4.
Here are my five favorite NFL player props for Week 4.
NFL Week 4 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Omarion Hampton |
Over 63.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Jordan Mason |
Under 83.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Spencer Rattler |
Over 34.5 pass attempts | -114 |
 Chase Brown |
Under 53.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Ashton Jeanty |
Over 65.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 4
Prop pick: Omarion Hampton Over 63.5 rushing yards
The Los Angeles Chargers took Omarion Hampton with the 22nd pick in the draft after he was a two-time First-Team All-American at North Carolina.
Although Hampton's career got off to a slow start, he showed improvement last week, rushing for 70 yards on 19 carries against a tough Broncos defense. He gets an easier matchup in Week 4 against the New York Giants, who are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (153.3).
Hampton was expected to be spelled by Najee Harris, but the veteran tore his Achilles tendon last Sunday. That should mean a heavy workload for the rookie, especially in a game where the Bolts could be working with a positive game script as 6.5-point favorites.
Prop pick: Jordan Mason Under 83.5 rushing yards
Jordan Mason's rushing yards total is sitting at a whopping 83.5. That sort of number is typically reserved for elite running backs like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry — not someone like Mason, who has never broken the 800-yard mark in a season and was acquired for a fifth-round pick in the offseason.
Mason rushed for 116 yards last week, but that was with a heavy positive game script against a Bengals team that's terrible against the run. This is expected to be a closer contest, and the Pittsburgh Steelers sit near the middle of the league in run defense analytics, ranking 13th in defensive rush EPA and 15th in defensive rush success rate.
This is a five-star play according to the EV Analytics model, which is projecting 70.46 yards for the Minnesota Vikings RB.
Prop pick: Spencer Rattler Over 34.5 pass attempts
The New Orleans Saints are massive 16.5-point road underdogs against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. This might be a battle between the league's best team and the worst, with the Saints fresh off a 44-13 loss to the Seahawks.
New Orleans QB Spencer Rattler racked up 39 pass attempts against Seattle, and he threw the ball a whopping 46 times versus the Cardinals in Week 1. He went just below this number with 34 pass attempts in Week 2, but that was in a competitive contest against the 49ers, where he was playing with a neutral game script.
Don't expect a close contest against a well-rested Bills squad that typically blows out weak opponents. Although Rattler might be one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, the game script should dictate plenty of passes.
Prop pick: Chase Brown Under 53.5 rushing yards
Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown is off to a nightmare start this year. He rushed for just 43 yards on 21 carries in Week 1 before finishing with 16 attempts for 47 yards in Week 2. Brown was even worse last week, picking up a pathetic three yards on 10 carries against the Vikings.
Bengals coach Zac Taylor seemed to lose faith in Brown in that contest. Brown was on the field for just 55% of Cincinnati's snaps, and he ceded carries to Samaje Perine (four carries for 21 yards) and rookie Tahj Brooks (five carries for 17 yards) who were both more efficient.
The Bengals are last in the league in run blocking grade per PFF, and Brown has minus-41 rushing yards over expected — the fourth-worst number in the league.
He'll have a tough time finding running room against a solid Denver Broncos stop unit this week. The Broncos are installed as 7.5-point home favorites which could lead to the Bengals abandoning the run if they fall behind early.
Prop pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 65.5 rushing yards
Ashton Jeanty came into this year as the Rookie of the Year favorite after getting drafted with the sixth pick in the draft. He's been contained so far, but like Hampton, the Las Vegas Raiders' RB is also coming off his best game after carrying the rock 17 times for 63 yards against Washington's tough run defense in Week 3.
Jeanty has consistently been hit behind the line of scrimmage due to an offensive line that struggles to move bodies. The fact that he's 12th in the league in yards after contact (146) and fourth in missed tackles forced (13) is a good indication that he's due to break out.
He should find more room on Sunday against a Chicago Bears defense that's been shredded on the ground and will likely be missing top linebacker T.J. Edwards. The Bears are 28th in the league in defensive rush success rate and 31st in yards allowed per rush (5.5).
NFL Week 4 prop betting card
- Hampton Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Mason Under 83.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Rattler Over 34.5 pass attempts (-114)
- Brown Under 53.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Jeanty Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114)
My NFL weekly props column is 5-5 this season for -0.56 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
