It can be tough to handicap NFL player props in the final week of the regular season, when many teams rest stars in meaningless games.
That's why my NFL picks this week focus on three high-stakes games.
See why I'm betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Aaron Rodgers with my best NFL player props for Week 18.
NFL Week 18 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Rico Dowdle |
Under 56.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
Over 7.5 receptions | +114 |
 Aaron Rodgers |
Over 20.5 pass completions | -114 |
 Audric Estime |
Over 49.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Hunter Henry |
Over 4.5 receptions | +110 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 18
Prop pick: Rico Dowdle Under 56.5 rushing yards
Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle has rushed for 1066 yards this year. However, most of that damage came earlier in the season when he rumbled for 130+ yards three times in five weeks.
He has rushed for less than 55 yards in five of his last seven games, averaging 47.3 rushing yards per game on just 3.4 yards per carry over that span.
He'll have a tough time finding room on Saturday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a win-or-go-home clash. The Bucs are fifth in the NFL in defensive rush success rate and held Dowdle to 29 yards on nine carries when these rivals clashed two weeks ago.
Prop pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 7.5 receptions
The Seattle Seahawks face the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday night with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the odds-on favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award, and he will be fed the ball in this crucial game.
The third-year wideout leads the league in receiving yards (1709) while ranking fourth in receptions (113). San Fran is 24th in the NFL in defensive dropback EPA and 26th in receptions allowed to wide receivers (195).
JSN has snagged at least eight receptions in 10 of 16 games this year, including the season opener against San Fran when he reeled in nine of 13 targets. This is an easy play at plus money.
Prop pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 completions
The winner of Sunday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will earn a trip to the playoffs, with the loser eliminated.
Since Pittsburgh's bye in Week 5, Aaron Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in eight of 11 games. He's eclipsed this number in each of his last four contests, including a Week 14 clash at Baltimore when he completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 yards.
Baltimore's defense has been a passing funnel, ranking 28th in the league in completions allowed per game (23.0).
The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, which implies a passing game script. While the temperature is below zero, there will be clear skies with barely any wind, so the former Green Bay legend will have no issue slinging the ball.
Prop pick: Audric Estime Over 49.5 rushing yards
The New Orleans Saints might be eliminated from the playoffs, but young players like Audric Estime will be heavily motivated to prove themselves and earn a larger role moving forward.
Estime was drafted in the fifth round by the Broncos in 2024 after starring at Notre Dame. Despite rushing for 310 yards as a rookie, Denver released him last summer due to a crowded RB room.
The Saints signed him, and with starting RB Alvin Kamara and backup Kendre Miller out with injuries, he's the next man up. Estime made his first career start last week and rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
He'll be given another chance to shine on Sunday against an Atlanta Falcons squad that can't stop the run. Atlanta is 26th in the league in defensive rush EPA and rushing yards allowed per game (127.4).
Prop pick: Hunter Henry Over 4.5 receptions
Week 18 is the final chance for some players to hit contract incentives. New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry has logged 55 receptions this year and will earn a $250,000 bonus if he hits the 60-catch milestone.
Unless Denver loses as a -850 favorite, the Pats won't get the top seed, but a win would secure the No. 2 seed. The Pats have confirmed that MVP front-runner Drake Maye will start at QB on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins.
Miami is 31st in the league in defensive dropback success rate and ranks 30th in receptions allowed to tight ends (102). Expect Maye to get his veteran tight end the ball in an effort to give him a little Christmas bonus.
NFL Week 18 prop betting card
- Dowdle u56.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Smith-Njigba o7.5 receptions (+114)
- Rodgers o20.5 completions (-114)
- Estime o49.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Henry o4.5 receptions (+110)
My NFL weekly props column is 46-34 this season for +7.38 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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