Week 13 is fast approaching, and more information is trickling in, which is what drives the player prop market.
Wrapping up my Week 13 prop card are two plays that are already looking like winners. I’m backing a running back who will get all the carries in the highest total game of the week, plus getting a value receiver in a potential shootout.
Check out my NFL prop picks ahead of Sunday.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Pacheco anytime touchdown (+120)
- Jones Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Sunday
Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco had a season-high 22 carries last week against a tough Rams rush defense and scored on one of his 12 touches inside the red zone. He’ll get another great matchup with ample opportunities on Sunday in a game that has the highest total on the board at 53.
The Bengals’ defense ranks 23rd in EPA/rush and 16th in success rate. They aren’t the worst rush defense, but with Patrick Mahomes averaging 370 passing yards per game over the last five, Zac Taylor won’t be able to put all his resources in to stop the run like he did last week vs. Derrick Henry.
The Chiefs have also been running the ball more of late, as their run percentage over the last three games sits at 43% compared to just 35% from Week 9 and earlier. Pacheco could also get some help up front with the return of left guard Joe Thuney, who was out last week. He’s graded as a Top-10 guard in five straight seasons, per Pro Football Focus.
With Jerrick McKinnon likely out after a DNP Thursday and only Ronald Jones behind him, Pacheco will have another big volume day Sunday, and that means plenty of red zone looks. Getting the lead RB to score a TD at +120 with an elite offense and a high-total game seems like a steal.
Zay it ain’t so
Last week, I hit Christian Kirk Overs when I should have bought some Zay Jones shares at a better price. This week, I won’t make the same mistake.
Jones had an insane 37.8% target share last week and caught 11 of his 14 targets, making it back-to-back games with double-digit targets. Now he gets an even better matchup this week vs. the Lions’ Bottom-3 pass defense in an indoor environment with a game total of 51.
Jared Goff will keep this game close with his great play at Ford Field, and with the injury to Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence could be in pass mode again. He's completed at least 72.5% of his passes in three straight weeks.
Jones’ receiving total is 12 yards shorter than Kirk’s at 50.5 yards, and since Week 7, he owns a 23.9% target share. That number jumps to 31.6% over the last two games — the seventh-highest target share in football over that stretch.
This is a situation where I also wouldn’t mind sprinkling some money on his 100-yard milestone at +725, as the matchup, environment, production, and opportunity are all there.
Zay Jones Prop: Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
NFL prop picks for Saturday
Count your Jennings
The San Francisco 49ers haven’t needed to play catch-up of late, as they’ve allowed just 40 points over their last four games. However, with the explosive Dolphins on deck Sunday as well as an extremely injured running back stable, it wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco had to pass the ball at a higher rate than its 49% clip over the last three games.
The Dolphins rank 25th in success rate vs. the pass and have the No.25 DVOA pass defense. With Christian McCaffrey's DNP on Wednesday and Elijah Mitchell likely heading for the IR, the 49ers might need more from their receivers this week.
Deebo Samuel is still dealing with injuries as well, and the wide receiver was limited at practice on Wednesday. This could mean a bigger volume for Jauan Jennings, who is coming off a solid six-catch, 49-yard performance with a score last week in a game with a fairly positive game script. He also saw a four-game high in snaps and ran a route on 62% of the team's dropbacks.
Jennings’ yardage total sits at a modest 20.5 yards, which is a number he has topped in five of his last seven games. The Dolphins are allowing over 50 receiving yards to opposing slot receivers, which is the highest mark in football and includes a 71% completion rate.
With the Dolphins likely keeping this game close and the injuries to the San Francisco running game, I’m jumping on Jennings to top his receiving total of 20.5 yards, which could get longer depending on how Samuel deals with practice this week. His total is a slight increase from last week, but the opportunity and matchup are worth the four-yard markup.
Jauan Jennings Prop: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
Green with Henry
Derrick Henry has carried the ball at least 20 times in seven of his 11 games this season, and although he’s averaging under 3.0 yards per carry over his last three games, a date with the Eagles is a deceivingly good matchup for the Tennessee Titans.
Teams have had plenty of success running against the Eagles of late. Since their matchup with the Texans in Week 9, opponents are averaging 32 carries for 131 rushing yards vs. the Eagles. Dameon Pierce, Brian Robinson, and Jonathan Taylor all rushed the ball at least 22 times over that stretch, and now it’s the time of the year when the Titans lean on Henry.
The Eagles are one of the best rushing teams in all of football and are coming off a dominating performance vs. the Packers where they ran for 363 yards. This Sunday’s matchup vs. the Titans will be much tougher, as Tennessee has the No.1 rush DVOA defense and ranks No.1 in success rate vs. the run. The Titans’ defense should help keep this game script neutral, which in turn should keep Henry running the ball.
Teams are running vs. the Eagles at 50% over the last three weeks — the fourth-highest rate in football — while only three other teams are running the ball at a higher rate than the Titans on the season. It’s shaping up to be a heavy-volume day for Henry.
Derrick Henry Prop: Over 20.5 carries (-115)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Making money with Murray
There's nothing sexy about this Denver offense, but it’s hard to ignore the snap share that Latavius Murray is getting right now.
Last week, he outcarried Marlon Mack 13 to 2 and ran for a season-high 96 yards. He has double-digit carries in five of his seven games and played on 82% of the snaps with Melvin Gordon out of town last week. Very few, if any, backs have this type of snap share, and with Murray already rushing for four touchdowns, adding another one Sunday vs. the Ravens at +190 seems like a great price for a great opportunity.
Without Melvin Gordon in the mix, Latavius Murray played 83% of Denver's offensive snaps in Week 12. He had just one target, but he ran 25 routes, per Next Gen Stats, which was significantly higher than Marlon Mack's 3.— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 28, 2022
Baltimore sits in the middle of the league at 0.8 rushing TDs allowed per game and the passing offense is just one of eight teams averaging under 200 passing yards per game. This game will be tight with how well the Denver defense has played all year, hopefully keeping Murray and the Denver run game active for 60 minutes.
Most other backs who have a projection workload of 13 to 15 carries have much shorter TD prices than Murray at +190. With Gordon also taking snaps in Week 11 vs. the Raiders, Murray’s TD price closed at +178 which doesn’t seem like enough of an adjustment when you consider his stranglehold on the carries entering Week 13.
Murray has played six games for the Broncos this season and accounted for 37.5% of the team’s touchdowns in those games. If Denver is going to score, there's a better than 34.5% chance that it’s Murray who finds the endzone, in my opinion.
There is also a revenge factor here vs. Baltimore if you're into that kind of thing.
Latavius Murray Prop: Anytime touchdown (+190)
Knowing what players’ totals are week-to-week is a very important tool for prop bettors because the market can certainly overreact, and that is the case with Marcus Mariota’s rushing total.
This week, the Atlanta quarterback’s rushing total opened at 41.5 yards, seven yards longer than his total last week and a season-high. His season average sits at 33.5 yards and I don’t see the justification for the 24% increase.
First off, Mariota is not a lock to play a full game this week after another poor performance down the stretch in Week 12. He tossed an interception in the red zone vs. Washington in the final minute down six points and has thrown for more than 187 yards just once in his last seven games. Desmond Ridder sits in the shadows with the team nearing elimination at 5-7.
Secondly, he's facing a Pittsburgh pass defense that sits in the bottom half of the league in EPA/dropback and success rate vs. the pass. Mariota should be able to find open receivers and avoid the scramble yards which are making up roughly half of his total rushing yards on the season. The loss of Kyle Pitts doesn’t worry as he has been a non-factor all season. Mike Tomlin also seems prepared to game plan against the mobility of the Atlanta QB.
Mike Tomlin on Falcons' offense: "[Marcus] Mariota's mobility is a challenge, their schematic use of his mobility is a challenge. Those types of things level the playing field, create space and splash plays. We can't have that." #Steelers— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) November 29, 2022
Additionally, Mariota is averaging just 35.1 rushing yards per game and faces a defense that allows 15.5 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, which is a Top-7 mark.
Sharp prop bettors will likely pick up on this inflated total and drive it down, but I’m getting on it early. THE BLITZ is projecting just 27.9 rushing yards and I’d play this Under to 36.5 yards.
Marcus Mariota Prop: Under 41.5 rushing yards (-110)
Goff the record
Jared Goff has played much better indoors at Ford Field this season. He has a 15:3 TD/INT ratio at home this season compared to a 2:4 mark on the road. His QB rating is 21 points higher at home and he's averaging 30 yards and five more attempts per game in Detroit. He’ll get a very good matchup vs. the Jaguars this week, who allow the second-most passing yards per game on the road at 288.5.
Jacksonville allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for a nine-week high of 254 yards last week — over 50 yards more than his season average. Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards vs. the Jags the week before that, and even Russell Wilson threw for over 250 yards on 18 completions vs. this defense in Week 8. This is a bad Jacksonville pass defense.
Last 4 QBs and their YPA vs. JAX:— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) November 30, 2022
Derek Carr: 7.2
Russell Wilson: 8.4
Patrick Mahomes: 9.5
Lamar Jackson: 7.9
Jags are 30th in PFF coverage grade & 30th in pass defense DVOA
A Jared Goff tweet disguised as an Amon Ra tweet pic.twitter.com/2fch6viMEV
With his yardage total at 240.5 (-110 to the Over) and his Over 1.5 touchdown market at +100, I’m keen to take the yards with how well Jamaal Williams has been running inside the 20. Goff’s passing total is three yards longer than his season average and is the shortest it’s been at home since Week 2.
His pass-catchers are as healthy as they’ve been all season, Penei Sewell looks more probable than doubtful, and guard/center Evan Brown might make a return in Week 13.
With splits, the game script, matchup, and environment all in his favor, this is a great spot to hit Goff’s Over on 240.5 yards which will likely close above 245.5.
Jared Goff Prop: Over 240.5 passing yards (-120)
NFL Week 13 prop betting card
- Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (+120)
- Zay Jones Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Jauan Jennings Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Derrick Henry Over 20.5 carries (-115)
- Latavius Murray anytime touchdown (+190)
- Mariota Under 41.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Goff Over 240.5 passing yards (-120)