The Cincinnati Bengals visit the winless Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Oct. 11, looking to end a two-game slide. Cincinnati is the 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 42.5 as I make my early Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions.
My NFL picks back Miami to keep this matchup close in a low-scoring game.
Bengals vs Dolphins predictions
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Early Bengals vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +7.5
Something is off with the Cincinnati Bengals (I know, what else is new?).
After starting 2-0, the Bengals have lost consecutive games as a favorite, and now their most significant weapons are hurting. Ja’Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol, an issue that's among several notable NFL Week 4 injuries. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins is dealing with an adductor injury. With a Week 6 bye looming, Cincinnati could take a cautious approach if either receiver is borderline.
Joe Burrow’s sloppy mistakes add another concern. His 428 passing yards on Sunday weren't enough to overcome two costly interceptions. It all makes the Bengals a tough team to trust while laying more than a touchdown in the Miami heat.
The Miami Dolphins just delivered their most competitive performance of the season. That's not saying much, but they showed fight in a 15-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings while winning the yards-per-play battle, 5.4 to 4.7.
The Dolphins also hung around against Kansas City in their home opener, trailing by seven in the fourth quarter. The talent is thin, but the effort is there. That can keep this game close against a Bengals team showing cracks.
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Early Bengals vs Dolphins total pick: Under 42.5
Miami has scored four touchdowns in four games and hasn’t topped 13 points this season. Competing harder hasn’t fixed an offense that managed just 198 yards against Minnesota, but the Dolphins did show some bright spots defensively in that game. Elsewhere, Cincinnati’s defense delivered a solid bounce-back effort, holding Jacksonville to 22 points after surrendering 30 to Pittsburgh.
The Bengals’ offensive ceiling is the other concern. They always possess the ability to explode, but Chase’s concussion and Higgins’ adductor injury leave Burrow potentially short on firepower, while his two interceptions Sunday underline the mistakes hurting the team's attack.
With Miami's offense remaining laughable and Cincinnati’s top playmakers uncertain, I’m backing a grind-it-out game that stays Under 42.5.
Bengals vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Bengals vs Dolphins spread: Dolphins +7.5
- Bengals vs Dolphins moneyline: Bengals 77%, Dolphins 23%
- Bengals vs Dolphins Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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