Lamar Jackson (ankle), Ja'Marr Chase (concussion), and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) all left Sunday's Week 4 games with injuries, sending shockwaves through the NFL futures markets. You can see the full list of notable Week 4 injuries at NFL.com.
The injuries have caused significant movement across the futures markets at our top prediction market apps. We're digging into how the probabilities shifted at Kalshi and what each injury means for the key markets. Here are the NFL picks and futures angles to look at after these injuries.
How Lamar Jackson's ankle injury affects Kalshi MVP odds
Lamar Jackson suffered a left ankle injury late in the first half of the Baltimore Ravens' 24-18 win over the Tennessee Titans and did not return, with Tyler Huntley taking over under center. Jackson had completed 15 of 20 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns while adding 20 rushing yards before leaving, and he exited the stadium in a walking boot.
The severity is still unclear. Coach Jesse Minter said, "We don't know enough about it right now," and acknowledged there was some discussion about returning Jackson to the game. ProFootballTalk reported Jackson is believed to be "week to week" pending an MRI, while other outlets described him as day to day.
Kalshi reaction: Jackson was at 12% to win MVP before Sunday's games, trailing Josh Allen (24%) and Brock Purdy (18%). After the injury he dropped four percentage points to 8%.
Ravens Super Bowl odds on Kalshi after Week 4
Before kickoff, the Super Bowl market had the Buffalo Bills at 13%, the Rams at 11% and San Francisco at 9%, while Baltimore sat at 8.5%. After the win, the Ravens dipped slightly to 8% to win the Super Bowl.
Baltimore moved from 53% to 61% to win the AFC North and from 15.2% to 18% to win the AFC Championship. The Ravens' next game is Sunday Night Football at the Atlanta Falcons, and the point spread has already shrunk from Ravens -6 to -3.5 at DraftKings on the injury uncertainty.
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Ja'Marr Chase's concussion: Bengals futures impact
Ja'Marr Chase was ruled out with a concussion after taking a big hit in the first half of the Cincinnati Bengals' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Players take roughly nine days on average to clear the concussion protocol. With the Bengals playing at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins, I don't anticipate Chase being able to play.
Cincinnati has a bye in Week 6, so it makes sense to hold Chase out of Week 5, let him clear protocol without rushing, and have the star return after the bye.
Analysis: If Chase misses just one week, don't expect much movement in Bengals futures. Cincinnati should still have a high win probability against Miami, and Kalshi had the Bengals around 82% for that game before the injury news settled. A receiver's injury only moves a futures market when the absence stretches across multiple games.
Saquon Barkley's hamstring injury: Eagles NFC odds
The Philadelphia Eagles took hits left and right in Week 4. Saquon Barkley pulled up with a hamstring injury against the Los Angeles Rams and was ruled out, with Tank Bigsby taking over. Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard left with an ankle injury and cornerback Quinyon Mitchell exited with a knee injury.
After the loss to the Rams, the Eagles' Super Bowl odds at Kalshi fell from 4% to 3%, and their NFC East odds dropped from 52% to 41%.
Analysis: Barkley's is the most impactful injury of the group. Hamstring injuries are hard for explosive backs to shake and can linger past the initial absence. The Eagles' offense leans on Barkley's rushing gravity to open the passing game for Jalen Hurts. The 11-point NFC East drop would be steeper if the Giants and Commanders weren't both without their starting quarterbacks. With so many Eagles injured, this division is one to watch closely.
Kalshi NFL futures: Before vs. after
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Team / player | Sun. pregame | Mon. AM | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | |||
| Lamar Jackson | 12% | 8% | -4% |
| Josh Allen | 24% | 26% | +2% |
| Brock Purdy | 18% | 20% | +2% |
| Super Bowl | |||
| Ravens | 8.5% | 8% | -0.5% |
| Bengals | 5% | 4% | -1% |
| Eagles | 4% | 3% | -1% |
| AFC North | |||
| Bengals | 35% | 28% | -7% |
| Ravens | 53% | 61% | +8% |
| NFC East | |||
| Eagles | 52% | 41% | -11% |
Other injuries worth watching
The biggest blow is Green Bay Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, whose Achilles injury Matt LaFleur suspects is season-ending, a real hit to Green Bay's defense. In Denver, cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs) were both ruled out against the 49ers, so watch their Week 5 status before backing the Broncos' division and conference futures.
The Los Angeles Chargers lost receiver Ladd McConkey (foot) and tackle Joe Alt (neck) against Seattle, a combination that could pressure the offense if either misses time.
Buffalo Bills receiver D.J. Moore's aggravated shoulder isn't considered long-term, and Kansas City Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice's hamstring was called a "tweak" by Andy Reid, so neither is a futures mover yet.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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