That’s what the money is for. SEC head coaches are paid so much in part because the league receives that much money in television contracts since the quality of football is supposedly better.
Better quality of football necessitates some teams lose games, even teams that entered the season expecting to compete for a national championship. Thus, in a very real way, those bloated contracts are because of losses.
It may not be the loftiest of deals anymore, but when Brian Kelly signed his contract with LSU, the guaranteed $90 million certainly qualified as bloated. The Tigers may not have expected many losses to follow that contract, but the money is indeed for losses. Kelly is making good on that.
At this point, Kelly’s contract may not be big enough to assure him more chances at losses...
CFB Week 9 overreactions to make
Do overreact to LSU’s faceplant of a second half against Texas A&M on Saturday night in Death Valley.
The Tigers were outscored 35-7 after halftime, a defeat so one-sided that verb choices needed to be debated to describe it. Was that a walloping? A mollywhop? For now, let’s stick with faceplant.
i'm gonna go with "whompin"
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 26, 2025
Entering the weekend, yours truly bet on Texas A&M, favored by 2.5 points, expecting LSU’s discord to cost it against a physical opponent. This third loss has now thoroughly dashed any title hopes for the Tigers; LSU is out of College Football Playoff contention in no small part because its run game is utterly nonexistent.
A kitchen sink game for LSU should elicit a fast start.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 25, 2025
But I will trust Texas A&M's physicality in the long run.
LSU to win the first half / A&M to win the game: +600. pic.twitter.com/4cMsxvfzYe
When a non-sports fan looks over at that TV and comments on how few rushing yards you have, you know the night is going badly. The Tigers finished with 60 yards on 27 rush attempts, undone by seven sacks costing 49 yards. Gaining 109 yards (now sacks-adjusted) on 20 carries may sound promising, but attempting only 20 rushes was not merely a result of the increasingly lopsided score.
LSU never wanted to run. It knows it can’t.
That kind of knowledge will chew away at the locker room as a whole. It now has two weeks to ponder these failures. The noise around Kelly’s hefty contract is about to amplify exponentially.
NEW: LSU fans chant ‘Fire Kelly’ amid Texas A&M’s blowout of the Tigers 😬
— On3 (@On3sports) October 26, 2025
(via @Jptookit)https://t.co/Eb7aeNLQA9 pic.twitter.com/1xR6uwnHsl
College football is better when Baton Rouge is partying, but college football may be at its best when Baton Rouge is angry. We are rapidly approaching that furious state.
Douglas’s advice: With both LSU and Alabama idle next week, you should see a look-ahead for that game sooner than usual. Some advanced math might argue the spread should be within a touchdown, but take Alabama up to -10.5. Bet against the Tigers’ focus.
Into my veins.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 26, 2025
(These @statsowar numbers do not yet include Week 9.) https://t.co/utHpmufOme pic.twitter.com/yna3ksUGpi
Do overreact to Colorado’s no-show at Utah. The Buffaloes remain an unserious team, one without physical play in the trenches. While no one exploits those weaknesses better than Utah, those weaknesses are also now more clear to everyone in the Big 12.
At 1-3 in Big 12 play and 3-4 overall, Colorado is veering toward missing a bowl game. Giving up seven sacks and losing 62 yards is about as bad as life gets. Then again, it may be worse to give up 422 yards on 51 opposing rushes.
The Buffaloes have no trenches. Deion Sanders made sure to bring his Louis Vuitton at plenty of positions, but he has never improved upon the damp paper bags along the lines.
With Sanders’ health concerns, it could be natural for him to step aside this offseason. This deteriorating experiment needs an off-ramp, if nothing else.
Douglas’s advice: Colorado may be a short favorite against Arizona next weekend. This line should open favoring the Wildcats, but the actual opening number may depend on how much oddsmakers want to factor in Utah’s blowout of Colorado. Regardless, take Arizona up to -4. The Wildcats are not a stellar team, but right now, the whole world knows the Buffaloes’ weaknesses.
Do overreact to UMass’s 38-13 loss at Central Michigan. The Minutemen are 0-8 outright and approaching historically bad levels.
That was clear when they lost 42-6 to Kent State a couple of weeks ago. The 2024 version of Kent State was a rather historically bad team, rating 33 points worse than the average team, per ESPN.com’s SP+, and 7.4 points behind the second-worst team in the country (Southern Miss).
The 2025 version of UMass was rated 30.3 points worse than the average team entering the weekend and 5.7 points behind the second-worst team in the country (Sam Houston).
When you're a 16.5-point underdog and then fall short of that expectation by 8.5 points, your rating is going to fall further.
Douglas’s advice: College football is a joy because there are 136 teams playing by the same rules at the FBS level. To properly appreciate the top of the sport, the Alabama's and the Ohio State's and the Indiana's of the sport, you must also observe the bottom of the sport as it spirals toward an 0-12 season.
CFB Week 9 reactions to avoid
Do not overreact to Mississippi’s win at Oklahoma, as impressive as that 9-0 fourth quarter was. The Rebels may look like sure things for the College Football Playoff, but that should be about it.
Mississippi’s national championship odds still sit at +2000 at FanDuel, the ninth-best odds and the fourth-best out of the SEC alone. In the SEC, the Rebels are listed at +1200 to win the conference, fourth-best odds on the board.
Mississippi does not look the part of a national title contender.
Douglas’ advice: Aside from seeding debates, ignore the conversations praising the Rebels for all but locking up a Playoff bid. They should not be seen as a threat to make noise in December, let alone in January.
Do not overreact to Houston’s 4-1 record in the Big 12 after beating Arizona State on Saturday night. The Cougars would need help to sniff the conference championship game.
Yes, Houston is 7-1 outright at this point, and the Cougars should be favored in their final four games. At 11-1, Houston absolutely would make the College Football Playoff, particularly since their only loss would have been against likely Big 12 champion, Texas Tech.
Even at 11-1, the Cougars probably would not make the Big 12 title game. Yes, folks, as we approach November, we are back into conference tiebreaker season.
Of the four teams atop the Big 12 standings with zero or only one loss, Houston will need the most help. If all of BYU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Houston end up 8-1, the Cougars likely will have the worst conference opponent win percentage, boxing them out of the Big 12 title game.
Hence, sitting at +2000 to win the Big 12, actually sixth on the odds board.
The most likely way to that scenario would be Texas Tech beating BYU in two weeks, BYU beating Cincinnati in three weeks, and those four teams otherwise winning all their games. In that scenario, expect Texas Tech to meet BYU in the Big 12 title game.
Douglas’ advice: Ignore talk of Houston mounting a title run. The Cougars remain immensely flawed. Also, ignore most talk of conference tiebreakers. There are five weeks left in the season. You should wait at least two more before stressing about them. Let the rest of us concoct these nonsense wonders.
Rapid fire: More Week 10 bets to target
- Kansas State beat Kansas into the Sunshine mat. Credit the rivalry for that humiliating rout.
The Wildcats take pride in their 17-game winning streak in this rivalry and some amount of vengeance on behalf of their university as a whole, the national audience usually focusing on Kansas basketball and forgetting about any other sports in the state.I chose the right time to trust a Wildcat.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 25, 2025
EMAW https://t.co/CbOjI1Fa8Y
Kansas State will not put together that cohesive an effort next week against Texas Tech. Grab the Red Raiders at -7 if you get the chance.Kansas State offensive lineman Taylor Poiter was asked if he had a message for KU fans after playing in his final Sunflower Showdown football game.
— Kellis Robinett (@KellisRobinett) October 25, 2025
"Good luck with basketball." - North Carolina State is incapable of playing a normal game in Dave Doeren’s 13th season at the helm.
He put the team on his back tho 😤
— Covers (@Covers) October 25, 2025
Welcome back Greg Jennings
pic.twitter.com/Reknyr9oshThe Wolfpack lost 53-34 at Pittsburgh, falling behind 10-0 before clawing back to within 24-21 only to fall apart as the Panthers scored 22 straight points. To no one’s surprise, NC State was most vulnerable through the air, Pittsburgh throwing for 423 yards and averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
Georgia Tech’s turn is next. Bet the Yellow Jackets at -7 if available, and also bet the Over up to 55.5. Perhaps find some Haynes King passing props later in the week, while you’re at it.
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Bowling Green looks worse and worse without Drew Pyne. In the Falcons’ third game without the journeyman quarterback, they managed quality drives on 44.4% of their possessions, a massive improvement over the two previous games of 13.3% and 18.2%. That comes from facing Kent State.
Scoring only 21 points, though, was a problem, a crippling problem. Kent State scored 21 straight points to win, 24-21.
Doubt Bowling Green blindly, including against Buffalo next week.
- North Carolina is playing winning football, just without the wins. It is ugly, it is miserable, it is comical. It should end in victory next week.
GAME OF INCHES https://t.co/1Llg18jiWi pic.twitter.com/D4pdnBxKx2
— Liam Blutman (@Blutman27) October 25, 2025
Brace yourself, the Tar Heels may be even favored at Syracuse.
The Orange offense has struggled immensely without quarterback Steve Angeli, and Bill Belichick’s defense has found some traction in recent weeks. Go ahead, take a deep breath and bet on North Carolina to win a game outright in ACC play. There is going to be one at some point. It might as well be this one.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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