The first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff gives us a rematch between the Tulane Green Wave and the Mississippi Rebels when the sides meet in Oxford, MS on Saturday, December 20.
Tulane lost big on the road in September, but went on to win the AAC title. While Lane Kiffin has abandoned ship to take the job at LSU, the Rebels still possess one of the most talented rosters in college football, and that fact is reflected in my early Tulane vs Mississippi predictions and free college football picks for this CFP tilt.
Tulane vs Mississippi predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Tulane vs Mississippi spread pick: Mississippi -16.5
The Tulane Green Wave got thumped 45-10 by the Mississippi Rebels back in September, and Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall didn’t mince words when the rematch was set.
“The last time we played ‘em, they beat our ass, so we better play a lot different than we played last time,” he said.
That’s great coach speak, but unless Tulane is allowed to add players over the next two weeks, I don’t see a different result.
Lane Kiffin or not, this Mississippi team is just miles ahead. Tulane has serious issues on defense that teams outside the AAC can exploit. The Green Wave rank 97th in dropback EPA and 80th in rush EPA on defense, and 86th in late-down success.
A big reason for that is how badly they get dominated at the line against the run, allowing one of the highest line yard rates in the country. It leads to plenty of consistent gains, and why the Rebels ran for 5.7 yards a carry on 42 attempts.
Tulane found some success running the ball in the first meeting, but did nothing through the air. It should be a similar situation here, with the Rebels dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball.
The Rebels rank seventh in EPA/dropback, first in quality drive rate, and 39th in points per quality drive. And while Tulane’s pass rush has won games in conference play, it’s taking on a Rebel offensive line ranked fourth in pressure rate allowed.
Without being able to consistently put together scoring drives, the Green Wave defense will be worn down and run over by a Mississippi offense that simply has too much speed and too good of a quarterback for this game to remain close.
Early Tulane vs Mississippi total pick: Under 56.5
Survive and advance is the name of the game, and that’s why I think we’ll see an Under with this elevated total.
The first meeting featured 55 points, and it was just the second start for Trinidad Chambliss. Kiffin was trying some new things out with him at times, and had no problem running things up and seeing what his offense could do.
This time, there’s no Kiffin and there’s a completely different focus — and that’s getting out healthy. As such, the Rebels are apt to get out to a big lead, secure this game, and see it out as quickly as possible.
Tulane’s run defense can’t stand up to good rushing attacks and got dominated in that first meeting. It will likely be the gameplan here as Mississippi looks to put this one away behind the legs of Kewan Lacy.
On the flip side, Tulane allows far too much pressure on Jake Retzlaff and Mississippi will use that to put an end to drives. The Mean Green will hope to find success on the ground at times as it did when they first played, which should also drain some clock.
With a new coaching staff leading the offense, it’s likely the Rebels will also try to save as much as they can for the next round’s game. That will help prevent big pass plays, and help trend this total below the number.
Tulane vs Mississippi odds
- Tulane vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -16.5
- Tulane vs. Mississippi moneyline: Tulane +610, Mississippi -950
- Tulane vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Tulane vs Mississippi
- Tulane vs. Mississippi matchup
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Oxford, MS
- Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- TV: TNT
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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