Somewhere in the college football universe, this week will bring a controversial decision.
No, not how to punish the refs who missed a judgment call on a decisive Oklahoma touchdown in a one-score win against Auburn, nor what grace Mike Gundy deserves as his two decades at Oklahoma State inevitably come to an end. Not even how to react to the thought of an Indiana quarterback being the Heisman frontrunner.
Somewhere in the college football universe, a player will announce this week his intention to sit out the rest of the season and then transfer, thus preserving a year of eligibility for his next team.
This is not a new phenomenon. It has happened in years past. It happened before players had immediate eligibility upon transferring.
But with so many proud programs seemingly adrift only four weeks into the season, there may be more impact opt-outs this September. This was the exact wrong year to flounder early. Looking at you, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Florida, and Wisconsin.
College football Week 4 things you should overreact to …
Do overreact to how some programs reportedly handled NIL deals this season, front-loading them to pay in full before the House settlement went into effect.
At the time, that seemed a savvy decision. For those unaware of the House settlement, it was an antitrust settlement that led to schools paying players directly beginning July 1. Programs at the top of college football are now paying their rosters about $20 million.
That is not name, image, and likeness proceeds. That is payment. Simple as that.
Initially, it was believed the House settlement would render moot the NIL format of the last few years, so some programs dialed up their 2025 payments to be paid in full by July 1, as a means of attracting talent.
Well, if your team is collapsing beneath you and you have already received the bulk of the money you expect this season, there may be added logic to opting out of the season to have more playing time at your next stop. Would it be pure in moral concerns? In this era of capitalism, let’s not be so naive as to pretend that matters.
This will not be thoroughly widespread, but...
If Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney looks and sounds defeated, one can doubt the Tigers as a whole.
Swinney will inevitably preach about his culture and community this week, while seething at anyone who suggests a 1-3 start to the season is inexcusable.
Last week’s Sunday morning reactions column included the line, “Do overreact to Clemson’s loss. It was not that the Tigers lost. It was how.”
That got worse against Syracuse... it can always get worse.
Stories of Clemson's demise were greatly under-exaggerated.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 20, 2025
Douglas’ advice: The Tigers have an idle week before heading to North Carolina, and it is not like anyone should rush to bet the Tar Heels. But Bill Belichick also has an added week to prep, and his locker room bought into him more recently than Clemson’s bought into Swinney. Current numbers would suggest that game should be within single digits, but let’s hope sportsbooks next week open with Clemson an 11.5-point favorite, at which point dabbling on North Carolina would be worthwhile.
Do overreact to Oklahoma State’s malaise. Mike Gundy knows this is his end.
Everyone knows this is Gundy’s end. Getting blown out by Tulsa should be a death knell for any Oklahoma State coach, no matter how long he has been there.
Whether the Cowboys lose anyone to Week 4 or not, doubt them. Doubt them every chance you get. This is not complicated.
Me to Mike Gundy the rest of the season: https://t.co/OTCWYuXzMl pic.twitter.com/6VGfKYy41s
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 7, 2025
Douglas’ advice: As of sunrise on the East Coast, sportsbooks had not opened a line on Baylor at Oklahoma State next week. Rough math would have expected that spread to favor the Bears by about 11 before this past weekend. While both Baylor and Oklahoma State disappointed, only one lost to Tulsa. The trusted rule may be, “No one is as good or as bad as their most recent game,” but there is always an exception to prove a rule. The Cowboys are that exemption. Bet Baylor up to -17. Oklahoma State dreads the boos it will receive from its own fans, again.
Do overreact to Florida’s broken offense. The Gators totaled 141 yards against an in-state rival. They converted exactly none of 13 third downs. They are broken.
Of these four teams, Florida seems most likely to have notable defections before playing a fifth game. The Gators also have an idle week, like Clemson, but that just gives those players another week to ponder.
Douglas’ advice: There is no team total low enough to not take the Under when Florida plays Texas in two weeks.
It is an odd coincidence that three of these four teams have Week 5 off. Who knows what to expect from Wisconsin?
Luke Fickell has been in Madison for only two full seasons. But those have not been good seasons. To this point, he has gone 14-15. Getting blown out by Maryland is about as low as it gets in the Big Ten, simply because it seems incomprehensible anyone would lose badly to Purdue or Northwestern.
Unfortunately for the Badgers, they do not face either the Boilermakers or Wildcats this season.
Douglas’ advice: Watch intently the next 72 hours. If Fickell is not fired, then bet Michigan up to -19.5 in two weeks.
College football Week 4 things you should not overreact to …
Do not overreact to Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton’s apparent injury in the Red Raiders’ decisive win at Utah.
Texas Tech has next week off. If it seems like a lot of teams do, you are right. Every team has at least two idle weeks this season, simply because of where Thanksgiving lands this year. There are just 51 FBS vs. FBS games this week, and only 104 of 136 FBS teams are playing.
This lightens some weekends, but it also adds a weekend of joy to our lives.
Anyway, Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire said Morton was “good to go” while celebrating with his teammates. Morton clearly wanted to return to the game after he took a hit that worried the medical trainers. With an added week, there should be very little chance of Morton worries.
But also do not overreact to the Red Raiders’ explosive win at Utah.
Texas Tech led just 13-10 nearly halfway through the fourth quarter. The ensuing 21 points were impressive, but they should not erase the memories of the struggles that had come before.
No one in the Big 12 should be considered a genuine title threat.
Douglas’ advice: Ignore anyone who tries to tell you Texas Tech could win the national championship. Ignore them entirely. Their only want is to convince you of their intelligence, no matter how faulty it is.
Rapid fire: More Week 5 bets to target
- Notre Dame gave up 30 points to Purdue when the Boilermakers’ team total was 13.5. Arkansas gave up 32 points to Memphis when the Tigers' team total was 27.5. Take the Over when the Irish visit Fayetteville. The first half might see 61.5 points.
- Rice’s gun-option offense is a delight, and it hummed with some efficacy on Thursday night. Trotting that out at Navy may seem foolish; never try to out-hustle a hustler. But the combination of unique offenses should garner points. Take the Over up until 49 points.
- Find the Over in Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State. The Wolfpack affirmed all doubts in their defense this weekend, giving up 45 points to Duke in a game with a pregame total of 56.5. Let’s say the limit should be 51. Honestly, that feels low, but caution and valor.
- Syracuse quarterback Steve Angeli looked doubtful to be on the field next week vs. Duke. The Blue Devils are currently favored by 7.5 points. Rather than trusting Manny Diaz to keep the gas pedal down, take the Under 55.5 and trust Duke’s defensive line to make any Syracuse quarterback uncomfortable.
Syracuse coach Fran Brown was about to start up his postgame presser but stopped when he saw his starting QB Steve Angeli (who left the game on crutches) sitting outside the locker room. Brown walked over to check in on Angeli and his family pic.twitter.com/n2avriRmOn
— Chapel Fowler (@chapelfowler) September 20, 2025
- Speaking of Duke’s defensive line, remember what it did to Illinois, forcing havoc on 17 of 73 snaps? Indiana remembered.
Curt Cignetti, on why Indiana was so effective in pressuring Illinois: "Put the Duke game on," referring to Illinois' struggles to protect against Duke. "The difference in that game was Duke turned it over."
— Adam Rittenberg (@ESPNRittenberg) September 21, 2025
The book is out on the Illini. Quality defensive fronts can blow up Illinois’s offensive line. Even on the road, USC should be favored by a full touchdown.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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