Notre Dame fans will remember Saturday night’s botched hold for a long, long time. But Clemson fans will remember Georgia Tech’s 55-yard, game-winning field goal for even longer.
The dramatic defeats put any Irish or Tigers hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff on life support, at best. But one struck a deeper chord, and it was not the first time that exact chord was rung.
College football Week 3 things you should overreact to …
Do overreact to Clemson’s loss. It was not that the Tigers lost. It was how.
Entering the weekend, the Clemson Tigers already ranked No. 10 in the ACC in expected points added per rush against, effectively a mid-tier rush defense. That alone should have stood out more. The Tigers won the 2018 title not so much because of Trevor Lawrence, even if we often speak of it that way, but because of one of the best defensive lines of the last 20 years.
Rush defense may not be as highlight-worthy as getting after the quarterback, but it is often the underlying foundation that allows a defensive front to have chances to get after the quarterback. And Clemson has no rush defense right now. It was little coincidence the Tigers managed just one sack for three yards in Saturday’s loss.
Instead, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ran 41 times for 150 yards (sack adjusted). That was not even a resounding showing, but realize the Yellow Jackets were successful on half those rushes. The inability to stop Georgia Tech’s ground game more often than not left Clemson’s defense toothless.
Flash back to November of 2022. Notre Dame took 46 carries for 264 yards (sack adjusted) to simply push Clemson around for a night in an upset that redeemed Marcus Freeman’s debut season. It was clear then, the Tigers are no longer the menacing force in the trenches that it was when it won its national titles.
Clemson still is not that force. And that lowers its floor immensely.
If Clemson doesn't get a 50-yard TD run with 1:16 to play vs. Pitt and a 57-yard FG as time expires vs. SMU, the Tigers would be 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. P4 opponents. Haven't beaten a P4 by more than 10 points since 10/19 of last year (vs. UVA)
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) September 13, 2025
Douglas’ advice: Do not let anyone talk you into a ticket on Clemson to still win the ACC. The Tigers threaded this needle a year ago, but the further that trench play falls, the more narrow the path becomes. And with both Miami and Georgia Tech looking like the real deals, not to mention Florida State’s presence, Clemson may be the fourth-best team in the ACC. Another conference loss awaits Dabo Swinney and quite possibly multiple.
Do overreact to the lack of effort from Colorado, Virginia Tech and, to some extent, Florida this weekend. The Q-word should not be used lightly, but it applies to at least two of those teams.
And again, the problems started in the trenches. As Deion Sanders refused to recruit high school offensive and defensive linemen, he doomed the Colorado Buffaloes to shoddy play where it matters most.
That has snowballed, as the Buffaloes cannot stop a rushing attack to save their lives; it increasingly looks like they do not much want to, either. Watch No. 50 here, the linebacker who begins to approach Conner Weigman at the second level:
Conner Weigman is so back. What an impressive performance by Houston tonight. pic.twitter.com/8Sb9g3653E
— Max Olson (@max_olson) September 13, 2025
When your coach regularly botches clock management, and both sides of the ball are regularly out-physicalled by teams that are supposedly piers like Georgia Tech and Houston, ambivalence becomes contagious. Perhaps that is the better word, “ambivalence,” rather than “quit.” The latter implies an actively negative approach.
Then again, the former may be even worse. If the opposite of love is not hate, but indifference; then is the opposite of care not quitting, but ambivalence?
Things may be even worse at Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 0-3, losing by double digits in every game, after falling to Old Dominion, 45-26. The Monarchs ran for 250 yards and outgained the home favorite by 93 yards total.
Turnovers played a role in the upset, but they were not the story. Virginia Tech getting outplayed by a Group of Five team from its own state was the story.
Brent Pry is now 16-24 in his three-plus seasons as the Hokies head coach, and his employment status seems like simply a matter of time. This roster has more reason than any to be ambivalent.
Much of the same can be said of Florida. Sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway was supposed to save Billy Napier’s job. Instead, he threw five interceptions at LSU, including this comedy:
DJ Lagway's fourth interception... pic.twitter.com/HWAHz1O1Mo
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) September 14, 2025
The Gators’ locker room was supposed to believe Lagway could continue an upward trend as he sparked in 2024. That myth has been dashed. Napier should thank Key for drawing more headlines this weekend, but there will still be plenty of attention on Florida’s decisionmakers.
Douglas’ advice: Virginia Tech hosts FCS-level Wofford this week, so the Hokies should be alright. But watch both Colorado and Florida early, if you do not want to bet them to start the week. If the Buffaoes start poorly against Wyoming and/or the Gators start poorly at Miami, quickly bet against them live. Ambivalence usually shows up strongest in the face of adversity.
Miami is an early 8.5-point favorite at FanDuel, a number you should try to grab before -10, while Wyoming is an early 13.5-point underdog. Perhaps wait to see if that finds +14 before you grab it, if wanting to bet before Saturday.
College football Week 3 things you NOT should overreact to …
Do not overreact to Haynes King’s second massive rushing performance of the season. Georgia Tech has already signaled it will pick its moments with its star quarterback.
King hardly looked like he missed the game last week, did he? That was because he could have played, but the Yellow Jackets did not need him to against FCS-level Gardner-Webb, and they saw more value in saving King from a few hits.
They likely will play him against Temple, but with Georgia Tech an early 22.5-point favorite, this should be another opportunity to save King from a few hits.
Oklahoma took that approach with John Mateer this week against the same Temple, but Mateer held onto one read-option, hit a hole and ran for 51 yards to cash the Over on his rushing prop. That is always a risk.
But the Yellow Jackets’ offensive game plan will not feature King on the ground next week.
Douglas’ advice: Bet the Under on King’s rushing yards prop as soon as you see it, likely Wednesday morning.
Do not overreact to Marcus Freeman’s rather clear statement he had no faith in the Irish defense on Saturday night. Notre Dame’s defense will play better for the same reason the Irish Playoff hopes linger: The schedule will allow it.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish play Purdue next week. It will not face another offense as good as the two it just played the rest of the season.
So yes, Marcus Freeman chose to go for a 4th-and-1 with 3:40 left in clear field goal range rather than trust his defense to get a stop on the ensuing possession. And that decision was validated with a conversion and subsequent touchdown, as well as the Irish defense then promptly giving up a Texas A&M touchdown.
On the surface, that should convey plenty of long-term doubt. But realize who awaits Notre Dame.
Purdue comes next week. Then Arkansas, Boise State, and NC State. The Razorbacks may find some success, but overall, the Irish should be just fine in the short term.
Douglas’ advice: Bet the Over 50.5 on Purdue vs. Notre Dame next week. Some may say the Irish season is dead, and the Playoff should be a pipe dream at best, but Freeman rallied his team in a similar spot last year and then poured on the points when chances presented themselves. Sophomore quarterback CJ Carr could use an easy game. The Boilermakers should provide that, though head coach Barry Odom should scheme up a score or two of his own.
Rapid fire: More Week 4 bets to target
- Grab Kansas at any number short of -13.5 against West Virginia. The Jayhawks had the week off to stew over giving away a rivalry game against Missouri, while the Mountaineers are ripe for a letdown after a relatively shocking overtime win against their biggest rival, Pitt.
- Understand that just because a game is on a nationally broadcast channel, you do not need to bet it, and that should apply double to Washington at Washington State in primetime on CBS next weekend. But the Huskies short of -21 is worth pondering.
- Oregon fell short of its team total at Northwestern, but still bet that against Oregon State. The Beavers’ special teams follies create added scoring opportunities for their opponents.
- Get your chores done early this week. You do not want to have anything hanging over your head at noon ET on Saturday. Texas Tech vs. Utah may be one of the most intriguing games of the season.
- Find the Over in North Carolina State vs. Duke. Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren gave his defense a vote of no confidence a week ago, ala Freeman’s 4th-and-1 choice this week, and Duke needs a get-right game.
- Take the Over in Auburn vs. Oklahoma, up until 51. The two offensive lines are too good to not produce some points. There may not be a game with two better offensive lines than that underrated SEC matchup.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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