College football is back, baby! Get ready for five glorious days of ranked giants clashing, neutral-site thrillers exploding, and FBS vs. FCS chaos just waiting to flip the script.
It’s wall-to-wall action, and we’ve got ChatGPT in the war room. The generative AI chatbot has crunched the odds, sized up the matchups, and is dropping fearless NCAAF picks and analysis for every Week 1 game featuring an AP Top 25 team.
Strap in. It’s gonna get wild.
NCAAF Week 1 moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
No. 25  Boise State vs  South Florida |
-210 |
 Western Illinois vs No. 12  Illinois |
NA |
No. 1  Texas vs No. 3  Ohio State |
-122 |
 Old Dominion vs No. 20  Indiana |
-2800 |
 Nevada vs. No. 2  Penn State |
NA |
 Syracuse vs No. 24  Tennessee |
-610 |
 Marshall vs No. 5  Georgia |
-176 |
No. 8  Alabama vs  Florida State |
-550 |
 South Dakota vs No. 22  Iowa State |
-720 |
 Montana State vs No. 7  Oregon |
-4500 |
Illinois State vs No. 18  Oklahoma |
NA |
 Long Island University vs No. 15  Florida |
NA |
 North Dakota vs No. 17  Kansas State |
-4000 |
 UTSA vs No. 19  Texas A&M |
-2800 |
No. 9  LSU vs No. 4  Clemson |
-165 |
 New Mexico vs No. 14  Michigan |
NA |
 Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs No. 23  Texas Tech |
NA |
 Georgia State vs. No. 21  Mississippi |
NA |
 East Texas A&M vs No. 16  SMU |
NA |
 Northern Arizona vs No. 11  Arizona State |
-10000 |
 Virginia Tech vs No. 13  South Carolina |
-310 |
No. 6  Notre Dame vs No. 10  Miami |
+114 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8-27.
No. 25 Boise State vs South Florida
Moneyline prediction: Boise State (-210)
Odds: Boise State is a 5.5-point favorite; O/U is 62.5.
USF’s offense is lively, but Boise’s balance and trench edge travel. The Broncos are slight favorites at FanDuel and have the cleaner defensive profile to steal a road opener.
Western Illinois vs No. 12 Illinois
Moneyline prediction: Illinois
Odds: Illinois is a 45.5-point favorite; O/U is 63.5.
Classic power-five tune-up. Even if the moneyline is off the board, the Illini’s size and depth should overwhelm over four quarters.
No. 1 Texas vs No. 3 Ohio State
Moneyline prediction: Ohio State (-122)
Odds: Ohio State is a 2.5-point favorite; O/U is 47.5,
FanDuel lists Ohio State as a slim 2.5-point favorite in its own stadium, a testament to both teams’ elite pedigree. Expect this game to be decided by the Buckeyes’ defense and the energy of the Horseshoe crowd tipping the final possessions. Field position, red-zone stops, and turnover margin will matter more than offensive fireworks. Texas must avoid costly penalties in the face of Ohio State’s relentless pressure. New starting quarterbacks (Julian Sayin for OSU, Arch Manning for Texas) introduce volatility, so the betting edge lies with the more battle-tested defensive unit.
Old Dominion vs No. 20 Indiana
Moneyline prediction: Indiana (-2800)
Odds: Indiana is a 23.5-point favorite; O/U is 54.5.
The Hoosiers are ranked and at home with a physical front seven. ODU can scrap, but sustained drives in Bloomington feel like a big ask.
Nevada vs No. 2 Penn State
Moneyline prediction: Penn State
Odds: Penn State is a 44.5-point favorite; O/U is 56.5.
Mismatch city. FanDuel has PSU as an enormous favorite; the Lions’ ground game and pass rush should put this out of reach early.
Syracuse vs No. 24 Tennessee
Moneyline prediction: Tennessee (-610)
Odds: Tennessee is a 13.5-point favorite; O/U is 50.5.
Neutral-site lid-lifter, but the Vols are priced like clear favorites at FanDuel. Tennessee’s defensive continuity and special teams edge should carry a rockier first half from a new-look offense.
Marshall vs No. 5 Georgia
Moneyline prediction: Georgia (-176)
Odds: Georgia is a 39.5-point favorite; O/U is 55.5.
The Bulldogs almost always start fast at home under Kirby Smart. Even when FanDuel withholds a moneyline on big spreads, Georgia’s roster depth is the story.
No. 8 Alabama vs. Florida State
Moneyline prediction: Alabama (-550)
Odds: Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite; O/U is 50.5.
FanDuel has Bama a strong favorite in this showcase, and the Tide’s defensive front versus an FSU rebuild is the key mismatch. Expect methodical, not flashy.
South Dakota vs No. 22 Iowa State
Moneyline prediction: Iowa State (-720)
Odds: Iowa State is a 14.5-point favorite; O/U is 47.5.
Ames is a tough opener for an FCS visitor. The Cyclones’ defense and field-position game should smother any upset bid.
Montana State vs No. 7 Oregon
Moneyline prediction: Oregon (-4500)
Odds: Oregon is a 27.5-point favorite; O/U is 56.5.
MSU is an elite FCS program, but Autzen plus Oregon’s speed makes this a long chase. Explosive plays flip this quickly.
Illinois State vs No. 18 Oklahoma
Moneyline prediction: Oklahoma
Odds: Oklahoma is a 36.5-point favorite; O/U is 60.5.
FanDuel’s market treats OU as a massive favorite. Expect a vanilla game plan and a deep rotation as the Sooners conserve looks for September.
Long Island University vs No. 15 Florida
Moneyline prediction: Florida
Odds: Florida is a 45.5-point favorite; O/U is 55.5.
The Gators open at the Swamp against an FCS foe; if a moneyline appears, it will be steep. Florida’s defensive speed should suffocate early downs.
North Dakota vs No. 17 Kansas State
Moneyline prediction: Kansas State (-4000)
Odds: Kansas State is a 25.5-point favorite; O/U is 55.5.
FanDuel lists K-State as a heavy favorite. The Wildcats’ line play and QB run game typically create a second-half avalanche in these spots.
UTSA vs No. 19 Texas A&M
Moneyline prediction: Texas A&M (-2800)
Odds: Texas A&M is a 24.5-point favorite; O/U is 57.5.
Kyle Field opener + SEC size advantage. FanDuel pricing is lopsided toward the Aggies for good reason: UTSA’s margin is takeaways, and A&M can play it clean at home.
No. 9 LSU vs No. 4 Clemson
Moneyline prediction: Clemson (-165)
Odds: Clemson is a 3.5-point favorite; O/U 57.5.
FanDuel shows Clemson as a short favorite. In a coin-flip on paper, the Tigers’ defensive front and Death Valley setting (even early in the year) are worth riding.
New Mexico vs No. 14 Michigan
Moneyline prediction: Michigan
Odds: Michigan is a 34.5-point favorite; O/U is 49.5.
Michigan is a near-lock moneyline pick with about a 99% win probability over New Mexico. Freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 recruit in 2025, will start at quarterback—becoming the first true freshman to open a season for Michigan since 2009. New Mexico begins a rebuild under coach Jason Eck, but Michigan’s roster depth and coaching stability make the outcome all but certain, though bettors should expect minimal payout.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs No. 23 Texas Tech
Moneyline prediction: Texas Tech
Odds: NA
The Red Raiders are No. 23 in the AP poll and open at home vs FCS SWAC foe Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the program’s first-ever meeting, a classic mismatch spot in Lubbock. Tech brings back senior QB Behren Morton (named the starter) and has supercharged the roster via NIL/transfer additions under Joey McGuire, while UAPB enters Year 3 under Alonzo Hampton after a 3–9 2024. As of Aug. 26, major books list this matchup with no posted moneyline, underscoring the disparity, so if you want exposure, you’ll likely be choosing Tech in parlays or waiting for alt markets/props.
Georgia State vs No. 21 Mississippi
Moneyline prediction: Mississippi
Odds: Mississippi is a 35.5-point favorite; O/U is 60.5.
The Rebels host Georgia State at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and are priced like a near-certainty, with spreads around -37.5 to -38 and moneylines posted as high as -20,000 at some books (others simply don’t list one). Where a moneyline is available (e.g., -10,000 to -20,000), that implies roughly 99–99.5% win probability—so this is a “safety” leg for parlays rather than a value play by itself. First-year starter Austin Simmons takes over for Mississippi under Lane Kiffin, while Dell McGee leads a rebuilding Georgia State—another reason the market is so lopsided toward the SEC side.
East Texas A&M vs No. 16 SMU
Moneyline prediction: SMU
Odds: SMU is a 48.5-point favorite; O/U is 62.5.
SMU’s speed and offensive flow eat up G5 competition like deficit‑raising candy. A&M won’t stay in it long.
Northern Arizona vs No. 11 Arizona State
Moneyline prediction: Arizona State (-10000)
Odds: Arizona State is a 28.5-point favorite; O/U is 52.5.
ASU’s recruiting haul and P5 depth dominate from first snap. Northern Arizona gets picked apart before crowd noise levels spike.
Virginia Tech vs No. 13 South Carolina
Moneyline prediction: South Carolina (-310)
Odds: South Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite; O/U is 52.5.
USC’s offense has promise, and Beamer’s magic alone won’t be enough. The Gamecocks win by controlling the trenches and rhythm.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs No. 10 Miami (FL)
Moneyline prediction: Miami (+114)
Odds: Notre Dame is a 2.5-point favorite; O/U is 49.5.
Home-field edge and a fast pace give Miami a slight, sharp edge in this tight tilt. Go 'Canes—value in that home underdog fire.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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