Washington State vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Expect a Low-Scoring Grind

Long gone are the days of Mike Leach’s fast-paced, air-it-out offense with the Washington State Cougars. It will now be a clash of similar styles when they head to Camp Randall to take on the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday.

Both teams faced FCS opponents in Week 1 with vastly different results. Washington State needed some late heroics to finish off Idaho, while Wisconsin handled Illinois State with ease. However, can Washington State step up its play to match its competition?

Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Washington State vs. Wisconsin on Saturday, September 10. 

Washington State vs Wisconsin best odds

Washington State vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Not saying this game is going to be a repeat of last week’s Iowa and San Diego State’s touchdown-less affair, but expect a similar grind-it-out style. Both defenses have strong front sevens, while both offensive lines have some holes. 

In its Week 1 victory over Idaho, the Washington State defense allowed only 1.8 yards per carry and sacked the quarterback seven times. Meanwhile, Wisconsin only allowed 2.2 yards per carry to Illinois State and recorded four sacks. Both Washington State and Wisconsin forced a pair of interceptions in their respective games. 

While neither defense returned very many starters from the previous season, they both brought in some experience through the transfer portal. Washington State hired Brian Ward as their new defensive coordinator from Nevada, and he brought along two transfers: Daiyan Henley and Jordan Lee. Both players were big impacts in the first game of the season. 

Wisconsin brought in two grad transfers on defense in the secondary with Cedrick Dort Jr. from Kentucky and Jay Shaw from UCLA. They helped lead the Wisconsin defense to a shutout — I don’t care that it was against an FCS opponent, shutouts at the collegiate level are not easy. 

Besides both defenses being great against the run and excellent in pass rush, both offenses are vulnerable on the offensive line. Washington State has a massive lack of experience on the line and allowed three sacks to Idaho. Wisconsin has some major questions on the right side of the line after also allowing three sacks last week, and possibly won’t have starting left tackle Riley Mahlman available on Saturday. The Badgers also only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in the run game if you remove the 96-yard touchdown run. 

Both teams will match strength against strength and weakness against weakness, and this just screams low-scoring game to me. Without some major turnovers or huge plays in the kicking game, I don’t even see this game getting into the 40’s on the total. 

My best bet: Under 49.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Washington State vs Wisconsin betting preview

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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

When two teams with very similar styles meet up, you typically want to take the more talented roster. There is no doubt that Wisconsin is more talented, but the problem is how large the number is, at -17. 

Graham Mertz did look much improved in the first game this season, as he went 14 of 16 passing for 219 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. The Badgers also proved they have some big-play capability as their first two scoring plays of the season were a 100-yard interception return and a 96-yard rushing touchdown. 

However, the Washington State defense is no slouch. Yes, it allowed 17 points last week to Idaho, but a big part of that scoring was due to three lost fumbles by the Cougars — one of which was returned for a touchdown. 

Washington State also brings in a new transfer quarterback, Cameron Ward, from Incarnate Word. He looked solid in his first FBS start with 223 yards and three touchdowns. However, it took him 40 pass attempts to get those 223 yards. There were a lot of short conversions and incompletions. 

Obviously, Wisconsin is my pick to win, but this spread is too high to feel comfortable given how low-scoring of a game this is likely to be. On the other hand, I don’t feel comfortable taking the Cougars with the points given that they may not score a touchdown. Would slightly lean towards the Badgers against the spread if I had to pick a side. 

Over/Under analysis

Surprisingly, this total has climbed from the opening number of 46.5 to 49.5. Nonetheless, I am confident in going against the money. Last season, Wisconsin was fourth in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 16.2 points per game. Despite many new faces, they started off the season right where they left off. 

Despite being mediocre in total defense last year, Washington State was seventh in the country in turnover margin. Nevada was second in turnover margin, and their defensive coordinator and two of the 11 starters are now with the Cougars. They are extremely aggressive and will try to take advantage of an inexperienced offensive line in Wisconsin. 

Last year, the Under hit in seven of the first nine games for Washington State. For Wisconsin, their first two games went Under the total. Both teams started their seasons with low-scoring games and this matchup fits that trend perfectly. Aggressive front sevens against mediocre offensive lines calls for a lot of sacks and a low-scoring game. 

Washington State vs Wisconsin game info

• Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Washington State vs Wisconsin key injuries

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Washington State vs Wisconsin weather

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Washington State vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the last seven non-conference games for Washington State. Find more NCAA betting trends for Washington State vs. Wisconsin.

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