The headlines may focus on Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia in all regards and on Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning’s passing struggles, but the betting focus should be on both the Commodores’ and the Longhorns’ ground games.
My Vanderbilt vs. Texas predictions feature two touchdowns likely to come on the ground, both from reliable yet underappreciated sources.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Our best Vanderbilt vs Texas SGP for Week 10
Both these touchdown props are priced at +150 at FanDuel. That plus-money makes some sense for Texas quarterback Arch Manning, who has scored on the ground just once since September, but using the fallen star as a rusher will help the Longhorns against one of the better run defenses in the country, with Vanderbilt ranking No. 20 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against per CFB-graphs.com.
Keeping the ball in Manning’s hands will create another blocker to perhaps help Steve Sarkisian’s miseries finding the end zone.
Pricing a Sedrick Alexander touchdown at +150, however, is foolish. The Vanderbilt running back has scored in six of the Commodores’ seven games against Power Four opponents, finding the end zone six times on the ground and three more through the air.
Focusing on Alexander may help Vanderbilt keep Diego Pavia’s feet planted, figuratively speaking, something that will be crucial to springing this upset.
Vanderbilt vs Texas SGP
- Sedrick Alexander anytime touchdown
- Arch Manning anytime touchdown
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