The No. 20 Texas Longhorns return home for the first time since September 20 to host the No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores
Will Vandy’s feel-good story come crashing to a halt in a difficult road game, or will the Commodores capitalize against a getable Texas team?
Read on for my Vanderbilt vs. Texas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
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Vanderbilt vs Texas predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Vanderbilt vs Texas spread pick: Vanderbilt +2.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores are arguably the top storyline of the 2025 college football season, sitting with a 7-1 record heading into Week 10. They’re in for a strong test as they hit the road for the first time since October 4 to visit the Texas Longhorns. At this point, the Commodores have built up enough trust that I expect them to hang close and be in position for a potential upset.
Texas hasn’t proven capable of moving the ball consistently, ranking 110th in success rate while being unable to block up front (116th in stuff rate). Vandy has far from a perfect defense, but the Commodores excel at getting into the backfield (16th in front seven havoc, 10th in defensive line yards).
If they can make Texas a one-dimensional offense leaning on the mercurial Arch Manning, they’ll have to like their chances.
It’ll be strength-on-strength on the other side of the ball. Vandy leads the nation in EPA per play on offense and hasn’t averaged less than 5.0 yards per play in any game this season. Diego Pavia may not light up the scoreboard in this matchup, but he should move the ball enough to find a cover.
Early Vanderbilt vs Texas total pick: Under 45.5
Although Texas is coming off a high-scoring 45-38 win over Mississippi State in overtime, that result is an anomaly due to the high pace of the Bulldogs. Texas was 2-5 O/U heading into that game, and a matchup against Vandy (120th in plays per minute) brings a much different game style.
The Commodores have put up big numbers against overmatched opponents, but have averaged 15.5 ppg in their two most difficult tests (Missouri, Alabama). Texas has a suffocating defense that should be on point at home for the first time in over a month.
If Vandy’s defense is considered the weak link of this team, consider that the Commodores rank 59 spots higher in success rate (51st) than the Longhorns’ offense (110th). Steve Sarkisian typically prefers not to push the tempo (80th), meaning this should be a slow crawl of a game.
Manning was concussed on the first play of overtime against Mississippi State, leaving his status uncertain early in the week. Backup Matthew Caldwell posted a 13-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio with Troy a season ago, so this isn’t an inspiring quarterback situation.
Vanderbilt vs Texas odds
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas spread: Texas -2.5
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas moneyline: Vanderbilt -150, Texas +125
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Texas
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Austin, TX
- Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- TV: SECN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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