Vanderbilt did the unthinkable last season by upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide. Now, can the Commodores take the next step and beat them in Tuscaloosa for the first time since 1984?
The Commodores enter this week’s matchup 5-0 and ranked 16th in the country. They have an offense with the tools to give the Tide problems, and a quarterback in Diego Pavia that makes you want to run through a wall with him.
So, I’ve cooked up a Vanderbilt vs. Alabama SGP that backs Vandy finding more success in this matchup. For even more college football picks for this thrilling SEC clash, check out my Vanderbilt vs. Alabama predictions.
Our best Vanderbilt vs Alabama SGP for Week 6
Diego Pavia leads a Vanderbilt Commodores offense that is even better than the one that upset the Alabama Crimson Tide last season. Vandy ranks second in offensive success rate and is very balanced, ranking 21st in EPA per rush and fourth in EPA per dropback.
Frankly, it is the type of offense that has given the Crimson Tide problems since Kalen DeBoer has gotten to Tuscaloosa.
Last season it was USF, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. This year it was Florida State. This Crimson Tide defense has looked slow against teams with mobile QBs and enters this matchup ranked 49th in opponent EPA per rush. The Tide are 0-6 ATS in those games.
They looked particularly slow against Florida State, surrendering 230 rushing yards to the Seminoles, including 78 yards and a score to QB Tommy Castellanos.
Pavia and this Vandy offense is better than last season and better than Florida State. Pavia gives his all for his team, and against a Bama red-zone defense that allows scores on 83.3% of drives, it means he’s going to be more likely to tuck it and run and get his team over the goal line.
Now, I do think that Alabama will have some success throwing the football in this game. Ty Simpson is a much better fit in DeBoer’s system and he has started to develop some chemistry with wide out Isaiah Horton.
Horton has hauled in five catches in each of the last two games going for 48 and 65 yards. With Ryan Williams garnering most of the attention from opponents, Horton has become a reliable other option. With a number sitting at 49.5, this is a great number to jump on in this matchup.
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