No. 19 USC looks to overcome its Big Ten road woes as it heads to Happy Valley for a Week 6 showdown with Penn State.
My early USC vs. Penn State prediction and college football picks see the Trojans as an undervalued asset despite the travel deficiencies, given Penn State's recent red-flag performances.
Read on for my USC vs. Penn State preview for Saturday, Oct. 10, broadcast on NBC at 7:30 pm ET.
USC vs Penn State predictions
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Early USC vs Penn State spread pick: USC +1.5
This is a "fade" Penn State play, and I'd back USC down to -2.5. The Nittany Lions haven't just been bad lately — they've been dreadful.
Managing 3.6 yards per play against Wisconsin at home and squandering a 17-0 lead aided by three turnovers? Getting outgained by 215 yards against Northwestern?
The Trojans offense is the best unit on the field, ranking eighth in success rate, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava (9.1 yards per attempt). The ground game will succeed against a putrid Penn State front seven ranked 133rd in EPA per rush and 135th in rushing explosiveness allowed, making for a balanced and effective offensive performance.
USC is a good but flawed team. However, Penn State hasn't provided any evidence that it is a quality team whatsoever.
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Early USC vs Penn State total pick: Under 56.5
You can't trust Penn State's offense to score enough to contribute to the total, even against a poor USC defense.
The Nittany Lions are 99th in success rate, generating little on the ground (96th in EPA per rush) and featuring a quarterback — Rocco Becht — averaging 5.1 yards per attempt with a 1:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio against power conference opponents.
USC's defense has been inconsistent, but there have been highlights (blanking Fresno State, holding Washington to 15 first downs). There's a ton of talent (ninth in 247's talent composite), and it's easier to look like a cohesive unit when facing a dysfunctional offense.
The likely leisurely tempo will prevent either side from running up the score. USC checks in at 102nd in snaps per minute (28), and Penn State isn't far ahead at 83rd (27.1).
USC vs Penn State odds
- USC vs Penn State spread: Penn State -1.5
- USC vs Penn State moneyline: USC 49%, Penn State 51%
- USC vs Penn State Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch USC vs Penn State
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: University Park, Pa.
- Venue: Beaver Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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