After upset wins by UConn and SMU gave us a profitable Week 8, we are back with our college football underdog plays for Week 9.
Our upset picks for this week include a team getting its first conference victory, an SEC powerhouse that got the luckiest win in the country last weekend, and a ranked, unbeaten team that may not be getting the respect it deserves.
Here are my three favorite college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
CFB Week 9 upset picks
Purdue
Mississippi State
BYUPurdue moneyline
The spread has shrunk since opening, but I’m still not sure how Purdue is the underdog at home as we head into the weekend.
Whether Ryan Browne can go or not for the Purdue Boilermakers — and all signs point to him being sidelined — this is a terrific get-right spot for them. That’s because this Rutgers defense is abysmal.
The Scarlet Knights rank 127th or worse defensively in EPA/dropback, quality drive rate, early down EPA, third down success, rushing success rate, and passing success rate. In other words, they are giving up plenty of quality drives, are allowing opponents to stay on schedule, and aren’t getting off the field.
Now their offense has done really well, and Purdue’s defense isn’t great. But the Boilermakers have posted strong metrics, as they did last week. Turnovers have been their Achilles heel, with another three committed against Northwestern.
Rutgers has forced only seven turnovers this season, and three of those came last week against Oregon—two of which came after the Ducks already led 49-3.
Purdue’s running game is actually quite solid, and the Ducks just ran through Rutgers for the tune of over 400 yards. The Boilermakers will have a mobile quarterback, causing problems for the Scarlet Knights, and Purdue will take care of the football and pick up its first Big 10 win of the season.
Mississippi State moneyline
Unlike Bruce Dickinson, the last thing Arch Manning needs is more cowbell. But the Mississippi State faithful are gonna give him all he can handle.
Kentucky lost its leading rusher, suffered from poor offensive playcalling, mismanaged end-of-half situations, and still nearly got an upset win last week over Texas.
Manning was a huge contributor to that fact. The Texas quarterback routinely missed wide-open throws against a Kentucky secondary that has given up big pass plays often this season.
The Longhorns got exhausted as this game went along. Their defense made key stops in short-yardage situations, but there were passes available for a Kentucky offense that hasn’t had much success in that area.
Few teams in the nation run the ball as successfully as Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lead the nation in rushing success rate with a 55.4% mark, and rank 33rd in EPA/rush. And they’ve been right there in two of their last three games, narrowly losing at Florida this weekend while giving Tennessee a fight.
Manning really struggled in both of his road games, and there may not be a more annoying place to play in the SEC than Davis Wade Stadium. Those cowbells are going to be ringing loudly, and nothing he’s shown this season leads me to believe he’s got the poise to handle that environment.
BYU moneyline
I understand fully why Iowa State is favored in this game. The Cyclones are at home, coming off a bye week, while BYU hits the road following a thrilling win in the Holy War over Utah. It’s the perfect spot for a letdown for the 11th-ranked Cougars.
But BYU is the better team in every area. The Cougars have a Top 25 defense in numerous metrics, and a Top 25 offense as well. They rank 15th in time of possession, 13th in run rate, and have a freshman quarterback in Bear Bachmeier who is gaining poise every week.
Meanwhile, Iowa State lost to Colorado before the bye week. The Buffaloes struggled to contain Bachmeier either through the air or on the ground, but gave Rocco Becht problems. Meanwhile, Kaidon Salter hurt the Cyclones for 255 passing yards on just 16 completions, while rushing for better than six yards a carry.
Iowa State’s offense doesn’t stand out either rushing or passing, and you need one of those things against this BYU defense. Furthermore, the Cyclones rank 67th defensively in rushing success rate and 72nd in third-down success. And with defensive tackle Dom Orange listed as doubtful, the Cougars should be able to run the ball even more effectively.
The Cyclones rank 88th in third-down success on offense. An inability to keep drives going against this BYU team will allow the Cougars to pound the ball, control the clock, and get the win.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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