It’s the penultimate week of the college football regular season for most schools, and there are numerous games with major conference and College Football Playoff implications this weekend.
Let’s take a look at three games that are ripe for an underdog win in our college football picks and upset predictions for Week 13.
CFB Week 13 upset picks
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Pitt moneyline
Florida moneyline
North Carolina moneyline
Pitt
Pat Narduzzi told us repeatedly that last week’s game against Notre Dame didn’t matter. And the Pitt Panthers didn’t dispute that fact, as they fell behind 28-3 in a 22-point defeat.
The reason he said that was he was looking ahead to this week’s matchup with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, a game that has massive ACC Championship implications. For Georgia Tech, it’s win and get in. For the Panthers, they need to win out and get a little help.
There’s a clear path to victory for the Panthers. Opposing offenses have been having a field day on the ground against the Yellow Jackets the past few games. They needed a late comeback to narrowly beat Boston College, who ran for 6.7 yards a carry, and lost to NC State the week before while allowing 243 yards rushing.
Desmond Reid returned against Notre Dame after being out a few weeks with an injury, and should partner with Ja’Kyrian Turner to move the chains.
On the other side, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fifth in rushing success rate, 12th in yards allowed before contact, and 12th in EPA/rush. The Panthers also rank 14th in quality drive rate, led by a stellar defensive line.
Pitt ranks 16th in quality drive rate on offense, and Georgia Tech ranks 121st in points allowed per quality drive. I’ll back the Panthers as they show why they were so heavily focused on this week’s game.
Florida
The Florida Gators showed me something last week. I honestly expected them to fold like a house of cards against Mississippi, much like they did on the road at Kentucky the week before.
Instead, the Gators flirted with derailing Lane Kiffin’s season for the second year running before falling apart in the fourth quarter. A big part of that was their rushing offense, which posted a 54% success rate and ranked in the Top 15 nationally last week in EPA/rush.
Now they face a Tennessee Volunteer defense ranked 120th in success against the run. The Vols are struggling to tackle, ranked 117th in missed tackle rate and 95th in yards allowed after contact. They also rank 133rd in EPA on designed QB runs, and have struggled with mobile quarterbacks.
Florida ranks seventh in forcing missed tackles, and 18th in designed QB run EPA. Jaden Baugh is a tank, and DJ Lagway’s rushed for 24+ yards each of the last three games—after having just one game over nine rushing yards in his first seven outings.
The Vols will put up points against this Florida defense, but I don’t trust them to win. They were very fortunate to get victories over Mississippi State and Arkansas, and the Gators would love nothing more than to ruin the season of their bitter rivals in the Swamp.
Florida is getting multiple key players back from injury on both sides of the ball. That will be the extra boost to help the Gators pull off the upset.
North Carolina
As much as we all mocked Bill Belichick in the first half of this season, he deserves credit for what he’s done with this North Carolina Tar Heels team in the second half.
The Tar Heels narrowly lost to Cal and Virginia before picking up two wins over Syracuse and Stanford. We’ve seen their defense vastly improve, and the offense has made some strides forward.
Last week, that offense sputtered against a very strong Wake Forest defense. But this week, Gio Lopez gets to face a Duke Blue Devils defense that is extremely poor.
Lopez has topped 200 passing yards in four consecutive games, and should have a solid day against a Duke defense that ranks 118th in passing success, 84th in EPA/dropback, and 114th in quality drive rate.
Duke’s loss to Virginia last week ended any hopes of reaching the ACC title game. Two defeats in a row leave the Blue Devils sitting at 5-5 on the season, and you wonder if they’ll be able to get up for this rivalry game after all the energy they put into last week’s defeat.
The last three meetings between these schools have been decided by a total of six points. The Tar Heels must win out to reach a bowl game, and I expect we’ll see their best effort of the season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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