Another week of college football means another week for potential upsets, and they become even more meaningful as we enter the final stretch of the season.
After profiting from Clemson’s misery last week, we’re once again targeting them as part of our three best underdog plays and college football picks for Week 11.
CFB Week 11 upset picks
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes moneyline |
+198 |
 Florida State Seminoles moneyline |
+102 |
 Maryland Terrapins moneyline |
+110 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
Do we really know how good the Oregon Ducks are? The Ducks lost at home to Indiana and their best win came against a Penn State team that is now 3-5.
Their last game was a mediocre win over Wisconsin, a team that is 2-6 on the year.
That’s why I think the Iowa Hawkeyes has a great chance to get an upset here. The Hawkeyes went on the road and won 37-0 against that same Wisconsin team, and lost by only five at home to Indiana.
But stylistically, they’re a problem for the Ducks. Teams haven’t run often with their quarterbacks against Oregon, with only three teams facing fewer designed QB runs.
The few times they have, it’s led to success. Oregon ranks 132nd in EPA on QB designed runs, and Mark Gronowski may be more dangerous using his legs than his arm.
He ran for 130 yards on nine carries against Penn State, and has run for a touchdown in every game this season with 11 in total.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes are one of the strongest units the Ducks will have faced this season. They allow just one yard on average before contact against the run, and only three teams allow fewer yards after the catch.
And Dante Moore was pretty banged up heading into the bye week.
The total for this game sits at 42 points, and the weather is supposed to be rough. In a game that low-scoring, having a strong run game and defense is perfect for getting an upset at home.
Florida State Seminoles
Last week we went against the Clemson Tigers for the third time as a favorite—and once again they showed why they’re not to be trusted as Duke got the comeback win with a two-point conversion in the final minute.
So let’s run it back. Not just because they keep making us money, but because they continue to be favored when I’m not sure they should be.
One of the biggest issues this year for Clemson has been an inability to make plays inside the 20-yard line. The Tigers rank 70th in red-zone scoring offense, and 87th on defense.
It doesn’t help that Clemson keeps allowing teams to consistently pick up yards. The Tigers have done well at limiting explosive plays, but they rank 61st in rushing yards allowed before contact and 84th or worse in EPA/rush, EPA/pass, and early down EPA.
The Florida State Seminoles ranks 17th in offensive line push when running the ball, and it’s helped lead to plenty of extended drives. The Noles rank ninth in available yards gained this season, helping them rank 18th in quality drive rate and fourth in points per quality drive.
And inside the red zone, they rank 23rd in finding points.
The Seminoles also rank fifth in average depth of target when throwing, and 25th in yards after catch. Clemson ranks 92nd in allowing YAC, which has allowed opponents to turn short catches into big plays.
An inability to run the ball continues to prevent the Tigers from seeing out leads, but that’s not a problem for the Seminoles. They’ll get a lead, run the ball down Clemson’s throat, and get the upset victory.
Maryland Terrapins
If the Rutgers Scarlet Knights can’t throw the ball, then they can’t win. They’re winless in the five games where they completed fewer than 65% of their passes, and that won’t be an easy mark to reach against this Maryland Terrapins defense.
The Terps rank 26th in pressure rate and they’ve picked up 23 sacks on the season. Their pass rush will be a problem for a Rutgers offensive line that ranks in the bottom third nationally in havoc allowed.
Rutgers also has the worst defense in the Big 10 this year. The Scarlet Knights rank 135th in defensive success rate and have been shredded through the air.
Maryland’s offense isn’t great by any means, but the Terps have still managed to put up solid offensive numbers this season.
Maryland’s in the midst of a four-game losing streak, but three of those losses came to Washington, Nebraska, and UCLA by a combined 10 points.
The Terps should’ve won almost all of those games, and I’m not impressed by Rutgers getting a win over Purdue because the Boilermakers melted down in epic fashion.
Maryland is the better overall team. I’ll back the Terps to get the job done on the road.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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