Tulsa vs Memphis Odds, Picks and Predictions: High Total No Match For These Teams

The total for this matchup between Tulsa and Memphis is set at 61.5 and for good reason. Neither team is particularly good at getting stops, and that spells good news for the Over — read our college football betting picks to learn more.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 10, 2022 • 16:34 ET • 4 min read

While the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Memphis Tigers may not be the sexiest college football matchup out there, it will get the national television scrub tonight on ESPN. 

But as ugly as the matchup might be, it has two things going for it:

1) With a total of 61.5, we should be treated to a bunch of points.

2) We can bet on it. 

The Golden Hurricane come into this one losers in five of their last six and haven’t covered a spread since September 24. Meanwhile, the Tigers have dropped four in a row. The thing lacking in respective skids? Defense.

So, is the Over a slam dunk and my best bet? Check out my college football betting picks and predictions for Tulsa vs. Memphis to find out.

Tulsa vs Memphis best odds

Tulsa vs Memphis picks and predictions

Yes, yes, it is. But I guess I’ll tell you why.

Despite Memphis losing four in a row, it has played respectably against a very tough stretch that saw it go against Houston, East Carolina, Tulane, and UCF. While the Tigers went 1-3 against the spread over that stretch, the offense was not a problem. 

The team averaged 33.3 points in those games. For the season, the team ranks 46th in yards per game. That has mostly been done on the shoulder of quarterback Seth Henigan. The sophomore signal caller has thrown for 2,508 yards with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 65% of his passes.

And before you say, "But Tulsa has a good pass defense," let me stop you right there.

Yes, the Golden Hurricane may rank 13th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. But that’s only because the Tulsa run defense has been so bad that opponents haven’t had much of a need to pass against it. 

Tulsa ranks 128th in rush yards per game and 120th in yards per rush attempt. That has resulted in a scoring defense that ranks 118th in the country surrendering 33.2 points per contest.

You can also make the argument that the Golden Hurricane have really only played one good passing offense all season. That was Southern Methodist, in a game where they didn’t have Tanner Mordecai, and the Mustangs’ backups still managed to combine for 310 passing yards.

So, yeah. I’m not sure Memphis will have too much trouble scoring. 

Preventing points, on the other hand, could be an issue for the Tigers. Memphis has had all kinds of problems defending the pass, ranking 119th in the country in passing yards allowed per game. 

While the status of Tulsa starting QB Davis Brin is up in the air, backup Braylon Braxton has been solid in relief. Braxton has thrown for 246 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in just over five quarters of work.

But whoever is under center for the Golden Hurricane should find success against a Memphis defense that is also giving up more than 30 points per game.

Life is too short for the Under anyways.

My best bet: Over 61.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Tulsa vs Memphis spread analysis

Memphis opened this AAC matchup as 6-point home favorites and have been bumped slightly to -6.5 as of Monday evening. While both teams have struggled to cover spreads this season, I would lean toward the home team.

Memphis is just 1-4 ATS at home this season, but it's played very close to the spread. In those four ATS losses, the Tigers have failed to cover by an average of just four points. And honestly, they’ve played better than this four-game losing streak indicates.

All four of their opponents in that are either already bowling or are one win away, and in Tulane’s case, may be headed for a New Year’s Six game. That includes an overtime loss to ECU and a one-point loss to Houston. 

Speaking of bowling. That prospect becomes much more likely for Memphis with a win on Thursday night, while at 3-6 it would take a bit of a miracle run for the Hurricane to go bowling for the third straight season.

Memphis has better quarterback play, more motivation to play well, and is at home.

Tulsa vs Memphis Over/Under analysis

I already broke down why I like this game to go Over the total but did you also know Memphis has been an absolute Over machine this season? The Tigers have cashed the Over eight times in their nine games and would have gone Over a total of 61.5 in four straight games — and seven times overall this season.

Tulsa vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Over is 20-6-2 in Memphis' last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tulsa vs. Memphis.

Tulsa vs Memphis game info

Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Date: Thursday, November 10, 2022
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

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Tulsa vs Memphis weather

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