The College Football Playoff Committee needs to put some respect on the James Madison Dukes’ name.
Despite their dominant run, the latest CFP Ranking still had the Dukes behind both teams in the AAC title game. That means it’s going to take a minor miracle to get James Madison into the playoff.
It starts with big win in the Sun Belt Championship Game over the Troy Trojans. My Troy vs. James Madison predictions and college football picks break down how the Dukes will do just that.
Troy vs James Madison predictions for the Sun Belt Championship
Who will win the Sun Belt Championship?
James Madison. A shocking take for a 23.5-point favorite, I know. But the Dukes have more than a Sun Belt title to play for. They need to demolish Troy and hope a few things break their way if they hope to be a part of the College Football Playoff.
Troy vs James Madison best bet: James Madison -23.5 (-112)
It’s kind of crazy that the College Football Playoff committee hasn’t given more respect to the James Madison Dukes.
JMU enters this Sun Belt Championship game with an 11-1 record. The lone loss was at Louisville in a game the Dukes were leading midway through the third quarter. Other than that, they’ve played just two games within single digits and have an average margin of victory of 25.1 points.
The Dukes do it all. They have an excellent offense led by dual-threat QB Alonza Barnett that ranks 18th in success rate and 28th in EPA per play. And they have an elite defense that leads the nation in success rate while ranking 12th in opponent EPA per play.
Meanwhile, the Troy Trojans own an 8-4 record. They saved their best win for last, a 28-18 victory over Southern Miss in what was essentially a Sun Belt title eliminator.
The Trojans have mostly relied on a strong defense to carry them to this point. Troy ranks 49th in defensive success rate and 65th in opponent EPA per play.
It’s the scoring against the Dukes that’s going to be a problem. The Trojans have one of the worst offenses in the country. They rank 112th in success rate and 110th in EPA per play.
The Dukes also got the added bonus of head coach Bob Chesney sticking around until the end of the season despite it being expected that he will be taking the UCLA job.
James Madison is motivated to get that big win and make one final case to the CFP committee. That’s something I’m willing to put money behind. I’m laying the points with the Dukes in this one, even at his big number.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Troy vs James Madison same-game parlay
James Madison has a balanced offense. Barnett has thrown for 2,440 yards with 20 touchdowns to seven interceptions while contributing another 459 and 13 scores on the ground.
I like Barnett to use his arm in this one. He’s tossed multiple touchdown passes in five of his last seven games.
Barnett’s backfield mate is running back Wayne Knight. Knight has had a breakout season for the Dukes, rushing for 1,061 yards at 6.2 yards per carry with nine total touchdowns.
If the Dukes are looking to run up the score, Knight to tally multiple touchdowns looks like a good bet.
Troy vs James Madison SGP
- James Madison -23.5
- Alonza Barnett Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Wayne Knight 2+ TDs
Our deep-ball SGP: Meadows makes his mark
If Troy scores it will probably be Meadows, who has found the end zone five times this season, including last week's big win over Southern Miss.
Troy vs James Madison SGP
- James Madison -23.5
- Alonza Barnett Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Wayne Knight 2+ TDs
- Tae Meadows anytime TD
Troy vs James Madison odds
- Spread: Troy +23.5 | James Madison -23.5
- Moneyline: Troy +1300 | James Madison -2500
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Troy vs James Madison trend to know
James Madison has covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games for +4.60 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Troy vs James Madison.
How to watch Troy vs James Madison
| Location | Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, VA |
| Date | Friday, December 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Troy vs James Madison latest injuries
Troy vs James Madison weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
