One of the biggest matchups of Week 8 sees the No. 20 Texas Longhorns travel to Stillwater to face the No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys in a ranked Big 12 showdown.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian said that he’s never been to Stillwater. He’ll be hoping his first visit results in a victory as the Longhorns continue their ascent as a program.
Mike Gundy & Co. may have other plans, as they fell in overtime to No. 8 TCU last week in the Cowboys’ only loss of the year.
Will Oklahoma State rebound after a loss? Read our college football picks and predictions below to find out.
Texas vs Oklahoma State best odds
Texas vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions
Is Texas back? The Longhorns are off to an impressive 5-2 start this season and are 3-1 in conference play with a chance to make some real noise in the Big 12.
They have been getting it done both offensively (36.7 points per game) and defensively (18.3 points per game allowed) and look like a much-improved team after last year’s 5-7 disappointment.
On top of that, Texas may be getting Oklahoma State at just the right time. The Cowboys are banged up, with quarterback Spencer Sanders dealing with a shoulder injury that put his status for last week’s TCU game in doubt amidst a swarm of rumors.
He ended up playing but was visibly limited and the Cowboys altered the playbook to try to make up for these limitations. He wound up completing just 44.4% of his passes (16 of 36) for one touchdown and one interception.
On the other side, Quinn Ewers has been a breakout star at quarterback for the Longhorns. He is completing 67% of his passes for a robust 8.8 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns to just two interceptions.
With star position players like Bijan Robinson (1,019 scrimmage yards, 11 TDs) and Xavier Worthy (432 scrimmage yards, six touchdowns) at his disposal, this is one of the most talented offenses in the country. Perhaps even more impressive has been the play along both lines of scrimmage, which was turned from a weak point in 2021 to a strength in 2022.
Texas is the better team on both sides of the ball, ranking 11th in offensive success rate and 20th in defensive success rate. The Cowboys check in at 48th in offensive success rate and 41st in defensive success rate.
Steve Sarkisian is 9-1 in his tenure at Texas when the Longhorns outrush their opposition. They are a very strong candidate to do that on Saturday, as the Pokes rank just 79th in rushing success rate and 110th in rushing explosiveness offensively, struggling to move the chains while lacking dynamism.
Running back Dominic Richardson has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry in Big 12 play. The Pokes’ defense has taken a big step back in 2022 and ranks just 64th in rushing success rate and 83rd in rushing explosiveness, so it could be another big day for this potent Longhorns ground game averaging 179.9 yards per game on an efficient 5.0 yards per carry.
My best bet: Texas -6.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
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Texas vs Oklahoma State spread analysis
After opening +2.5 in the Summer at some spots and -3.5 this past Sunday at others, the Longhorns have taken a significant amount of steam. Currently, Texas is a -6.5 favorite across the board.
This program has found its groove under Sarkisian, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. Texas has typically played well in this matchup, too, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Cowboys.
The odds might seem strange to someone glancing at the AP Poll, but the numbers seem to warrant Texas being a one-score favorite. The Cowboys have looked far from a juggernaut despite their pretty record.
First, they notched three shoo-in wins (Central Michigan, Arizona State, Arkansas Pine-Bluff) in the non-conference portion of the schedule. In Big 12 play, they beat Baylor despite being outgained by 78 yards and beat Texas Tech on a third-string quarterback despite losing the yardage battle by 93.
They then grabbed an early 24-7 lead against TCU but collapsed, failing to record another touchdown in regulation after scoring with 10:04 remaining in the second quarter. In a continuation of the theme, they were outgained by 124 total yards against the Horned Frogs.
Both teams have been profitable for bettors this year, as Texas is 5-2 ATS while Oklahoma State is 4-2 ATS.
Texas vs Oklahoma State Over/Under analysis
Texas’ defense has been a surprising bunch in 2022, ranking 20th in scoring defense by allowing only 18.3 points per game.
Led by middle linebacker Jaylan Ford, who has led the team in tackles five weeks in a row and was named Big 12 Defensive Players of the Week against the Cyclones after notching both an interception and a fumble recovery.
Will they be able to contain a Cowboys offense that ranks just 48th in success rate and 73rd in explosiveness? The Pokes do average 45.3 points per game, which ranks fourth nationally.
Despite being ineffective, they run a lot of plays, snapping the ball at least 76 times in each of their three Big 12 games. The effectiveness may not be there, but the tempo should stay. There’s a reason the Cowboys are 5-1 to the Over despite the offensive efficiency numbers leaving something to be desired.
When Texas has the ball, they should have a massive advantage in throwing the ball. Despite Ewers being injured at points this year and starting receiver Isaiah Neyor being lost for the season in Fall camp, the Longhorns still rank 16th in passing predicted points added (PPA) per play and sixth in passing success rate.
Oklahoma State lost a ton of talent and production from a great defense in 2021, along with coordinator Jim Knowles. It’s shown on the field, where they rank 93rd in passing PPA and 106th in passing explosiveness.
All in all, a total sitting between 60.5 and 61 feels a tad too low as long as Sanders suits up for this contest.
Texas vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know
The road team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two programs. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma State.
Texas vs Oklahoma State game info
|Location:||Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK|
|Date:||Saturday, October 22, 2022|
|Kickoff:||3:30 p.m. ET|
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