Saturday brings us an important game in the SEC when the Texas Longhorns head between the hedges to face the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens.
Arch Manning suddenly looks like a good quarterback again after a pair of 300+ yard games. He will need to be at his best to keep the playoff hopes alive for the Longhorns against a Georgia team that still has hopes of reaching the SEC Championship game.
Here are my early Texas vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
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Texas vs Georgia predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Texas vs Georgia spread pick: Texas +5.5
The Georgia Bulldogs run the ball extremely well, ranking 10th in EPA/rush and 20th in success rate. It’s helped set the Bulldogs up with plenty of quality drives and easily convertible third-down situations.
But that will be tested against the Texas Longhorns, who rank second in EPA/rush and 10th in run success rate. And with the Longhorns also ranking fifth in quality drive rate against and 21st in points per quality drive, Georgia may have to settle for field goals more often than usual.
For Texas, the run game has been almost non-existent at times. But this is a game where Arch Manning and his receivers might be able to do enough damage on their own. Georgia’s defense ranks 114th in pressure rate and 90th in yards after catch.
Ryan Wingo could be the reason Texas not only covers, but flirts with an upset. He’s a threat to house one anytime he touches the ball, averaging better than 10 YAC on 31 catches this season.
The top four receivers for the Longhorns average double-digit depths of target. Georgia ranks 100th in EPA/pass on defense, and have been giving up huge plays in the passing game of late.
If Manning can handle the environment and throw accurate passes, then this game should be close at the end. As long as Texas is getting more than four points, I’ll gladly accept.
Early Texas vs Georgia total pick: Over 46.5
Texas defends the run well, but Georgia can throw the ball enough to put up points. Just look at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, who routinely connected on big pass plays downfield.
Gunnar Stockton has looked much better the past few games as his offensive line situation has gotten settled. It’s seen him throw for 260+ yards in two of his last three games, and helped Georgia win even when the run game has struggled.
With how both of these teams are able to hit explosive pass plays, I’m leaning Over. Georgia ranks in the Top 30 in explosive pass rate, 14th in pressure rate allowed, and fifth in yards after catch.
And as good as Georgia’s defense has been, Ole Miss showed you can find success against the Dawgs without running the ball. The Rebels repeatedly hit on big throws downfield as they scored 35 points.
While I don’t think this game will come close to the 78 points those teams combined for, I think we have a total that has dipped a bit too low.
Texas vs Georgia odds
- Texas vs. Georgia spread: Georgia -5.5
- Texas vs. Georgia moneyline: Texas +180, Georgia -220
- Texas vs. Georgia Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Texas vs Georgia
- Texas vs. Georgia matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Athens, GA
- Venue: Sanford Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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