A high-scoring win at the Tennessee Volunteers last year was the first sign the Pittsburgh Panthers might ride a new-look, prolific offense to an impressive season. That 41-34 triumph was not an upset — Pittsburgh was favored by a field goal — but the result was still a bit shocking.
Now, the Panthers may have returned to their old form of ground-and-pound preferred by head coach Pat Narduzzi — or have they?
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Tennessee at Pittsburgh on September 10, with kickoff set for 3:30 ET.
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh best odds
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
Narduzzi spent the whole summer griping about former Panthers offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. The career offensive assistant spent three seasons as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator, culminating in the best season of Narduzzi’s career and a career-making season from quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Yet, Narduzzi was all too glad to split ways with Whipple this winter and repeatedly said he wanted to get back to a running-focused offense.
That approach was not working against West Virginia last week. The Panthers took 20 carries for 72 yards in the first half. Of five possessions, only one managed to cover more than 35 yards. Pittsburgh’s lone touchdown came courtesy of a short field. Thus, they were tied at 10 at halftime.
Then, something changed. The Panthers still ran plenty in the second half, netting four yards on 18 carries, but they also opened things up. Kedon Slovis threw 17 times for 241 yards after halftime. Three drives covered 62 or more yards apiece, all resulting in Pittsburgh touchdowns.
Did Narduzzi recognize reality? Or was West Virginia’s pass defense that bad? Most likely both.
Narduzzi simply letting Slovis open up the game shows a willingness to adapt on Thursday that was unexpected from him. It may be unprecedented from him, to be blunt.
When 241 of 308 passing yards come in the second half, as they did for Slovis, it suggests something more may be afoot.
If there is any defense to enjoy that change against, it is Tennessee’s. The Volunteers welcome high-flying opposing offenses. They might even prefer them, running an all-gas, no-brakes overall approach of leaning on their own offense. Ball State threw for 269 yards on 27-of-43 passing last weekend at Tennessee, while averaging only 2.7 yards per carry.
Narduzzi’s reluctant second-half shift clearly worked better for Pittsburgh, and that type of attack will certainly work best against the Volunteers. The market may not have leaned into that yet, but that doesn’t mean this best bet won’t.
My best bet: Pittsburgh +6.5 (-109 at SugarHouse)
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Tennessee vs Pittsburgh betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Grant a broad three-points for home-field advantage, and this 52-week swing is astounding.
A year ago, the Panthers were favored by three at Tennessee, suggesting they would have been a 6-point favorite at a neutral site. Now, the Volunteers are favored by 6.5 at Pittsburgh, suggesting a 9.5-point edge on a neutral field.
Whipple, Pickett, and star receiver Jordan Addison may be gone, but a 15.5-point swing in one year seems drastic.
It is a testament to the world not properly respecting Hendon Hooker’s arrival in Knoxville a year ago, but still, Tennessee went only 7-6. It lost two of Hooker’s three favorite receivers and its two best defensive backs. Those losses may not have the name value of Whipple, Pickett, and Addison, but they still run counter to this massive swing in the spread over one calendar year.
It is not like Pittsburgh doesn’t return much. The Panthers bring back 15 starters. They employ a more complete approach than the Volunteers ever will, simply given Josh Huepel’s general coaching preferences. His preferences are, to put a point on it, nearly the exact opposite of Narduzzi’s.
Over/Under analysis
That Backyard Brawl makes it apparent: Too much credence was given to Narduzzi’s summertime complaints, including by Narduzzi. Pittsburgh still has an offense that can push the ball vertically, even if the assumption is that the Panthers will run the ball.
Struggling to do so against the Mountaineers should push Pittsburgh to open it up again, and Huepel will welcome that.
Six Tennessee games went Over this week’s total of 66.5 points. More pertinently, 10 of 13 Volunteers’ games last year went Over their elevated totals. That is not an anomaly. That is Huepel at his finest.
As long as Narduzzi does not try to belatedly prove a point to Whipple at the expense of wins, then the Tennesee approach should continue. While bookmakers take him at his word, an opportunity to hit these Overs will persist. They made that mistake a year ago, setting totals too low for Pittsburgh for the first five weeks of the season.
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh game info
• Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh key injuries
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Tennessee vs Pittsburgh weather
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Tennessee vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
Tennessee’s final six games last season all went Over, as did its season opener last week against Ball State. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh.
