North Carolina Tar Heels fans will get their first chance to see how coach Bill Belichick has changed the culture in Chapel Hill when the TCU Horned Frogs come to town.
UNC has revamped its roster via the transfer portal, and integrating those parts might be tough against a talented TCU offense featuring quarterback Josh Hoover and wide receiver Eric McAlister.
Keep reading to see my favorite player props and the rest of my college football picks for this highly anticipated season opener on Monday, September 1.
TCU vs North Carolina props for Week 1
Hoover o289.5 passing yards (-114)- McAlister o76.5 receiving yards (-114)
Lopez u1.5 passing TDs (-152)
Prop bet #1: Josh Hoover Over 289.5 passing yards
Josh Hoover put up huge numbers for the TCU Horned Frogs in 2024, passing for 3,949 yards and throwing 27 touchdowns, with many of his best performances coming down the stretch as he continued to gain experience and improve as a pocket passer.
Hoover threw for 290+ yards on six different occasions last year, and he has a wealth of talent in the receiving corps. Clutch option Eric McAlister is back, while transfers including Jordan Dwyer a Joseph Manjack IV will add proven depth.
That’s going to make it hard for any team to cover against the Horned Frogs, which goes doubly for a North Carolina Tar Heels team that has been poor defensively in recent seasons. UNC allowed 7.87 yards per pass attempt last year and 222.8 yards per game through the air, ranking 80th in the nation.
Bill Belichick will look to instill a new defensive intensity at North Carolina, but the Tar Heels have had significant turnover on defense and will be learning on the fly against one of the best passing attacks in the country. Hoover will have a big day and hit his Over.
Prop bet #2: Eric McAlister Over 76.5 receiving yards
McAlister was one of the Horned Frogs' most dependable options in the passing game last season, catching 39 balls for 762 yards on the year. That’s an impressive average of 19.5 yards per catch, meaning he doesn’t have to get the ball a lot to threaten his yardage totals.
He was also the go-to receiver when Hoover needed to find an option in big spots. Nearly all of his receptions were impactful, with 35 of the 39 going for first downs or touchdowns.
McAlister is heading into his senior year ready to be Hoover's primary target. Realistically, being used more will probably bring down his average yardage, but he’ll still create explosive plays, and a couple of extra catches per game will only make it easier for him to hit his totals.
For the same reason that I like Hoover to hit his yardage Over, McAlister will feast on a new-look UNC defense, and I’m backing his as well.
Prop bet #3: Gio Lopez Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
After a productive 2024 season with the South Alabama Jaguars, Gio Lopez has been tapped to run the North Carolina offense for Belichick this season. He’s one of several transfer portal players who will try to integrate quickly to power the Tar Heels.
Lopez threw for 18 touchdowns and 2,559 yards last season, while also running for seven touchdowns. UNC will hope for more of that dual-threat dynamic, though the significant step up in competition could be challenging.
Even ignoring that, his overall numbers in the passing game have never been terribly impressive. In his last eight games in 2024, seven of which were against Sun Belt opponents, Lopez only managed to throw for two or more touchdowns twice.
Lopez faces a TCU defense bringing back most of its starters and was strong last year, ranking 25th in yards allowed per play. Taking the Under on Lopez is the smart play, as expecting multiple scores through the air is unrealistic in his first week with UNC.
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