By now, you know Bill Belichick is helming the North Carolina Tar Heels, and one of the greatest NFL coaches of all time is set to make his college football debut by hosting the TCU Horned Frogs.
While the Tar Heels will get all the publicity, my TCU vs. North Carolina predictions cut through the noise to tell you not to overlook this Horned Frogs team.
Check out my college football picks for Belichick’s much hyped debut, with kickoff at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill set for 8:00 pm ET on Monday, Sept. 1.
TCU vs North Carolina prediction
TCU vs North Carolina best bet: TCU -3.5 (-110)
Bill Belichick's arrival in college football is, without a doubt, one of the biggest stories in the sport this year.
As it should be. Belichick is a six-time Super Bowl champion and is regarded by many as the greatest NFL coach of all time. But how will his style translate to the college game? And how will a completely rebuilt roster handle a matchup against a really underrated and experienced TCU Horned Frogs team?
Belichick went to work right away, reshaping this North Carolina Tar Heels team, and there are more than 60 new faces on this roster heading into the season, including starting QB Gio Lopez, a transfer from South Alabama who threw for 2,559 yards and rushed for another 463 last year.
So, how quickly will all these new faces gel? It better be quick because this TCU team is a lot better than most casual college football fans realize.
Everyone still has fond memories of the miracle Hypno Toads and their incredible run to the CFP National Championship Game. Now, in his fourth year at TCU, this will be Sonny Dykes’ best squad since.
The Horned Frogs are led by junior QB Josh Hoover, who is coming off setting the school record for passing yards with 3,949. On the other side of the ball, TCU returns eight starters to a defense that ranked 25th in opponent yards per play.
Belichick was a great NFL coach, but the college game is different. Plus, there is so much variance and unknowns with transfer-heavy teams, and TCU is a known commodity. All hail the Hypno Toads and lay the points.
TCU vs North Carolina same-game parlay
As noted, Hoover broke the TCU school record for passing yards last season, and Eric McAlister, his favorite deep threat, returns. The senior wideout went for 762 yards and five scores last season, averaging 19.5 yards per reception.
It will be interesting to see how the North Carolina offense functions in its first game under Belichick, but they brought Lopez in to be a dual-threat QB. So, expect a bunch of designed runs. On top of that, TCU's strength on defense is its secondary, so don’t be surprised if he is forced to tuck and run at times.
Our deep-ball SGP: The Hoover-McAlister Connection
- Hoover averaged 303 passing yards per game last season and went Over 289.5 six times in 12 regular-season games.
- There are too many unknowns for this UNC team, making the Under on a season-opening team total seem wise.
TCU vs North Carolina game predictions
TCU vs North Carolina moneyline prediction
TCU is winning this football game. Yes, Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest NFL coach of all time, but the UNC roster just has too many new faces trying to learn a new system. The Horned Frogs have a talented quarterback and an experienced defense, which will be too much for UNC to overcome in Bill's debut.
TCU vs North Carolina spread prediction
TCU is a known commodity here, and Sonny Dykes will have his team more prepared for this moment. I love laying the 3.5 with the Horned Frogs and don't hate them up to 6.5 as I feel they'll win this one by a touchdown.
TCU vs North Carolina Over/Under prediction
I'm going to lean Under here. The combination of so many new players trying to learn a new system, having to go up against an experienced and solid defense like TCU, makes me feel like UNC won't do its part to send this game Over.
TCU vs North Carolina odds
- Spread: TCU -3.5 | North Carolina +3.5
- Moneyline: TCU -160 | North Carolina +132
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
TCU vs North Carolina trend to know
TCU covered the 1Q Spread in their final 7 games last season for +7.10 Units and an 89% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs North Carolina.
How to watch TCU vs North Carolina
| Location | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Monday, September 1, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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