Two of the top Big 12 teams collide in Tempe on Friday night as the Arizona State Sun Devils host the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Horned Frogs have rolled to a 3-0 start and look like they can make some noise in the Big 12 race this season.
See why my TCU vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks are backing the Frogs on Friday, September 26.
TCU vs Arizona State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early TCU vs Arizona State spread pick: TCU +2.5
The TCU Horned Frogs resemble a serious Big 12 contender through three games, going 3-0 with a +1.8 yards per play differential. Josh Hoover is a star at quarterback, leading the nation in passing yards per game (333.3) on a robust 9.7 yards per attempt.
The big question, for Friday night’s game against the Arizona State Sun Devils and moving forward, is how the defense will hold up. The Frogs rank 105th in EPA per play on that side of the ball while allowing 5.6 yards per play.
The thing is, Arizona State’s offense is unreliable. Quarterback Sam Leavitt is averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt and has thrown three interceptions, so the Sun Devils may not be able to exploit TCU’s main deficiency on defense, the secondary (109th in EPA per pass).
Kenny Dillingham’s squad will play in a ton of close games this year, and Friday night is likely another one. The offense is one-dimensional, lacking a true threat other than Jordyn Tyson in the receiving game, and they needed a last-second field goal to beat Baylor despite going +3 in turnovers.
Early TCU vs Arizona State total pick: Under 55.5
Playing the Under in a TCU game is a tough pill to swallow, but this handicap is about Arizona State more than anything. The Sun Devils have cashed the Under in three straight games, so I’m riding the train until I have a good reason to think otherwise.
Any observer of their game can tell that the offense hasn’t clicked sans Cam Skattebo. Tyson is the only wide receiver with more than four catches on the year, so teams are content to load the box against a team that doesn’t want to throw the ball (107th in pass rate) and has been ineffective doing so (103rd in passing success rate).
You need to stop the run and tackle well, and that’s exactly where TCU’s defense excels. The Frogs rank 20th in PFF’s rush defense grade and 27th in tackling, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry.
The Sun Devils rank outside the top 100 in plays per minute, and that’s by design. They want to sit on the ball and shrink the game, and that’s reflected in the fact that they’ve cashed three consecutive Unders. Here’s betting on a fourth.
TCU vs Arizona State odds
- TCU vs. Arizona State spread: Arizona State -2.5
- TCU vs. Arizona State moneyline: TCU +106, Arizona State -128
- TCU vs. Arizona State Over/Under: 55.5
How to watch TCU vs Arizona State
- TCU vs. Arizona State matchup
- Date: Friday, September 26, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- City: Tempe
- Venue: Mountain America Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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