Midweek Fun Belt will give college football fans something to sweat this evening as the Southern Miss Golden Eagles travel to Lafayette to face the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
The Week 11 college football odds tab Louisiana as a 10-point home favorite while the total is set at 52.5. Money has come in on the underdog as Southern Miss is coming off its first FBS win of the season and matches up with a Louisiana team trotting out its third-string quarterback.
I evaluate whether the Southern Miss vs. Louisiana line movement is warranted while giving my best free college football picks.
Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana best odds
Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana picks and predictions
It’s been a tough year for Will Hall’s Southern Miss Golden Eagles. They were bad in the first year of his tenure with a 3-9 record in 2021 but seemed to have righted the ship a season ago with a winning record (7-6) capped by a 38-24 victory over Rice in the LendingTree Bowl.
Unfortunately for Hall, things have not gone according to plan in 2023 as they have just two wins overall and one against an FBS team.
That being said, this isn’t a bad spot for Hall’s squad fresh off its first FBS win (24-7 over Louisiana Monroe) and facing an opponent down to its third-string quarterback. The Golden Eagles have covered in eight straight meetings with the Lousiana Ragin’ Cajuns and therefore hit the road with confidence.
The offense revolves around do-it-all running back Frank Gore Jr., who has 933 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns on the year and is perhaps best well-known for filling in at quarterback at points over the last three seasons for a program that simply hasn’t surrounded him with the best talent.
He’s run behind a porous offensive line that ranks 117th in line yards and 123rd in stuff rate, but the good news is that he could actually have some running lanes this week against a soft Louisiana front that checks in at 127th in stuff rate and 122nd in power success rate.
The Golden Eagles rank 128th in explosiveness this year — a big reason why they check in at 114th in EPA per play and are surrendering 35.8 points per game. They’ve been especially susceptible to big gains on the ground (129th in rushing explosiveness), which would normally be a concern against a ULL offense that wants to pound out yards on the ground.
The Ragin’ Cajuns run the ball a lot (32nd in rush rate) and do so pretty effectively (32nd in EPA per rush and average 197.3 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush). Running back Jacob Kibodi leads the way with 611 rushing yards and six TDs, but quarterback Zeon Chriss has also but tremendously potent with 492 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. Unfortunately for Michael Desormeaux’s squad, Chriss will be out for this contest due to injury.
The offense cratered when he left the game last week — Chandler Fields entered the game and managed just 92 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception on 17 attempts with a measly 2.8 AY/A.
It’s rumored that Chriss may be done for the season with a leg fracture, which would mean Louisiana would be down to its third-string signal-caller for the remainder of the year after Week 1 starter Ben Wooldridge was also lost due to injury.
I have more confidence in Southern Miss’ ground game working in this spot against a Louisiana defense that hasn’t stopped the rush all year (1,399 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs allowed) and just allowed 232 rushing yards and three rushing scores in a blowout loss to Arkansas State. Louisiana’s run game has been centered around the fantastic, explosive threat that Chriss brought to the table.
Southern Miss has been bad defensively but is coming off its strongest performance of the season in which it held Louisiana Monroe to seven points on just 260 total yards.
The Golden Eagles haven’t been bad on a per-play basis (55th in rushing success rate) but have allowed far too many big plays. It’s difficult to predict the Ragin’ Cajuns to find those chunk plays consistently without Chriss’ dynamism.
I agree with the line coming down throughout the week and will be grabbing the points with the road underdog. I’ll grab the +10.5 while it’s still available but would still play this one down a few points.
My best bet: Southern Miss +10.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana same-game parlay
Southern Miss +10.5 (-115)
Over 52.5 (-115)
I’m on the underdog as outlined above but for the total, I’m inclined to take the Over considering both offenses project to have a reasonable amount of success in this spot.
Southern Miss should be able to run the ball against a ULL defense that has allowed at least 116 rushing yards and a rushing score against every FBS opponent it's played this season. The Golden Eagles will be happy to feed Gore carries in this matchup and let him go to work.
As for Louisiana, it’s hard to have too much confidence in a team on its third-string quarterback. That being said, this was described as a three-way quarterback competition in the offseason and Fields is much more experienced than most teams’ third-stringer.
This is his fifth year in the system — he began last year as the starter and has attempted 224 passes. He faces a poor Southern Miss defense that is allowing 53.3 PPG and 551.2 total yards across four road games this season.
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Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana spread and Over/Under analysis
Most books are showing Louisiana -10, although -10.5 is also currently available. That’s a big move from the opening number of -14 and likely has to do with Chriss’ absence. The total has also dropped a bit, moving from 57.5 at open to 52.5 at current.
Neither team has been adept at covering spreads this season — both Southern Miss and Louisiana are 3-6 ATS overall.
The Golden Eagles have been hopeless on the road, going winless across four away games. Hall will hope to change that up here against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that is just 1-3 ATS at home this season.
If evaluating pace of play from a totals perspective, Louisiana prefers to slow things down and likely will do so here with Fields under center. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 99th in plays per game (65.4), which is a far cry from the Golden Eagles, who rank 27th while snapping the ball 74.4 times per contest.
Southern Miss is pretty simple offensively — when it gets the ground game going, it does pretty well. When it doesn’t, it looks hopelessly lost. One would think that Gore & Co. find success against a Louisiana defense that ranks 123rd in EPA per rush.
As for Louisiana’s offense, it should have a sizable advantage in the trenches. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 31st in line yards and 19th in power success rate whereas the Golden Eagles check in at just 106th in line yards and 109th in stuff rate defensively while grading out 130th in PFF’s rush defense metric.
Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana betting trend to know
Southern Miss has covered eight straight games against Louisiana. Find more college football betting trends for Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana.
Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana game info
| Location: | Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 9, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
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