The stage is set for the second round of the College Football Playoff. The most even matchup on paper features a heavyweight matchup between two new-money upstarts with genuine title aspirations: the No. 5 Oregon Ducks against the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders.
See why I'm taking the Ducks in my Oregon vs. Texas Tech predictions and college football picks for the Orange Bowl.
Oregon vs Texas Tech predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Oregon vs Texas Tech spread pick: Oregon -1.5
Both squads have had their fair share of dominance this season. You don’t end up at 12-1 apiece without being a top-notch team, so I won’t waste any ink explaining why both teams have been near the top of the sport this season.
Dan Lanning has built the Oregon Ducks into an unquestionably elite program. They’re 38-4 across their last 42 games, and the only losses have come to a National Championship runner-up (Washington, twice in 2023), a National Champ (Ohio State last year), and the current No. 1 team in the country (undefeated Indiana this season).
Simply put, the Ducks aren’t losing to anyone unless that opponent is National Championship-caliber good. Contrast that with the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost 26-22 to Arizona State this season in a game where they fell flat, mustering 276 total yards and 16 first downs.
Tech’s offense is the most suspect unit on the field from an analytics perspective, checking in at 53rd in success rate. They aren’t consistent enough running it (60th in rushing success rate) or throwing it (41st) to win three consecutive games against elite teams and capture glory.
Does that mean they’re guaranteed to lose in the Orange Bowl? Of course not, but Oregon has fewer question marks as a Top-15 team on both sides of the ball, and they’ve firmly established themselves as a threat under Lanning.
Early Oregon vs Texas Tech total pick: Under 52.5
While I’m openly questioning if TTU’s offense is good enough to win the Natty, I’ll express no such qualms about the defense. The Red Raiders limit opponents to 10.9 ppg and just 254.4 total yards on a measly 4.0 yards per play.
It all starts with a salty defensive front featuring near-future high NFL Draft pick David Bailey (17.5 TFLs) and Romello Height (nine sacks) on the edge. Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. (combined 17.5 TFLs) represent a fearsome defensive tackle duo, and it certainly doesn’t hurt to have star linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (117 tackles) behind them.
It’ll be strength-on-strength as TTU shuts down opposing rushing attacks, allowing just 2.3 yards per rush while leading the nation in EPA per rush allowed. Oregon checks in at third in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate, but it’ll be difficult to find room against a defensive front that's allowed the fewest defensive line yards in the country.
On the flip side, I have fewer concerns about Oregon’s defense (seventh in EPA per play) than most pundits. Sure, James Madison scored some points in Round 1, but that game entered garbage time in the second quarter. The Dukes racked up nearly 200 yards of offense in the fourth quarter against second-stringers — so what?
Oregon vs Texas Tech odds
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech +1.5
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech moneyline: Oregon -115, Texas Tech -105
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Oregon vs Texas Tech
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech matchup
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Miami Gardens, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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