SMU vs Tulane Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mustangs Ride the Wave and Cover

The Tulane Green Wave are coming off their first conference loss this season, but if they can put the setback behind them quickly, a spot in the AAC title game is still in their control. That may prove tough however, with the Southern Methodist Mustangs and quarterback Tanner Mordecai’s red-hot arm coming to town Thursday night.

The Mustangs enter this game winners of three straight thanks to Mordecai going nuclear, and with SMU not officially eliminated from the AAC title game, you know it'll be motivated.

So, which side has the betting edge in this classic matchup of great offense vs. great defense? I break it all down and bring you my best bet in my college football betting picks and predictions for Southern Methodist vs. Tulane.

SMU vs Tulane best odds

SMU vs Tulane picks and predictions

Despite suffering its first conference loss of the season, the path to the AAC title game is still clear for Tulane. Win out, and you’re in. 

The Green Wave got out to an 8-1 start thanks to a defense that ranks 28th in the country in opponent yards per play. However, there has been some evidence that a loss was coming. Tulane has been outgained four times in its last six games. 

UCF was able to run all over the Wave in last week’s game while passing teams like Memphis and East Carolina had some success through the air. The SMU offense will arguably be the best the Green Wave defense has seen all season.

Mustangs’ quarterback Tanner Mordecai has been next-level good since returning from injury. The senior signal caller has eviscerated USF and Houston the last two weeks — throwing for 659 yards while completing 73.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and no picks. 

What makes the Mustangs' offense even more dangerous is they are getting some balance from the run game. Running back Tyler Lavine has rumbled for 258 yards on 6.1 yards per rush while carrying the ball at least 17 times over the last two weeks.

While Southern Methodist doesn’t have a great defense, the Tulane offense has been inconsistent during conference play. The Green Wave racked up the yards against Tulsa and USF but have averaged less than 350 yards per game in their other four AAC matchups. 

That inconsistency will cost them in this matchup against SMU and their high-octane offense. I’ll take the points with the underdog Mustangs in a game I expect to be close.

My best bet: SMU +3.5 (-116 at Pinnacle)

SMU vs Tulane spread analysis

The spread for this AAC clash hit the board with Tulane as a 3-to-3.5-point favorite depending on the book and that’s where the line remains as of Monday evening.

Tulane not only saw its win streak come to an end last week but its ATS streak as well. The Green Wave had covered their first five AAC games. In fact, they have been one of the best bets in college football this season at 8-2 ATS. 

That said, the two times Tulane did not cover the spread both came at home. One was obviously in last week’s loss to UCF and the other an early-season defeat at the hands of Southern Miss. 

Meanwhile, SMU has covered the spread in four straight games. The Mustangs have been competitive in most games this season. And the only one where the offense really sputtered was against Cincinnati, where Mordecai got hurt. 

As I said, this should be a competitive game, so taking the points feels like the way to go.  

SMU vs Tulane Over/Under analysis

The total hit the board at 64.5 and you can still find it between that and 65.5 as of Monday evening. Now, obviously, most Southern Methodist games feel like a good candidate to go Over, particularly after watching that ridiculous 77-63 matchup against Houston. But the Tulane defense is good enough to give me hesitation to run and make that bet in this one.

Both of SMU’s other AAC matchups against solid defenses (UCF, Cincinnati) fell below that number, seeing an average of 58 combined points per game. Plus, Tulane prefers to run the football and has scored 27 points or fewer in five of its last eight games.

But the Mustangs can obviously put up some massive numbers, so I’d prefer to stay away from the total.

SMU vs Tulane betting trend to know

SMU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Tulane. Find more NCAA betting trends for SMU vs. Tulane.

SMU vs Tulane game info

SMU vs Tulane latest injuries

SMU vs Tulane weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic