The Rose Bowl sets up a great second-round matchup in the College Football Playoff between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers.
While the Hoosiers had a bye, Alabama made a remarkable comeback down 17-0 against Oklahoma to advance. Now, the Tide will be in a rare role for the program in the postseason: a touchdown underdog.
Here are my early Alabama vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks for the Rose Bowl.
Alabama vs Indiana predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Alabama vs Indiana spread pick: Indiana -7
This is a pretty fair number, but I’d lean toward the Indiana Hoosiers.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has not just been spectacular in big moments; he’s also been highly efficient. His group of versatile receivers gives IU plenty of options here, too.
That matters against an Alabama Crimson Tide defense that's good but can be forced into long drives when an offense consistently wins early downs and keeps third downs manageable.
Oklahoma didn’t do much of that, especially late in the game during the Round 1 matchup. Georgia, however, did in the SEC Championship Game. Indiana is capable of replicating that efficient brand of chain-moving football with a Top-50 run/pass offense.
Alabama’s offense is less well-rounded. Ty Simpson can create, and wideout Germie Bernard is a truly electric threat, but the run game has been inefficient. This puts more of the burden on Simpson to win from obvious passing looks.
If Indiana can squeeze out early-down runs and force Alabama into long second downs, it pushes Bama into the part of the game where havoc (IU 97th percentile in havoc creation) and negative plays appear. Tailback Jam Miller can still pop a run, but Indiana’s defensive style is to limit freebies and force opponents to earn every first down.
If Indiana plays its usual brand of efficient, low-mistake football, a 7-point spread is less about style points and more about stacking drive wins until the gap is two scores late.
Early Alabama vs Indiana total pick: Under 48.5
I projected this total at 45.5 and will gladly take the Under at 48.5.
The question is whether Indiana’s efficiency turns possessions into touchdowns or whether Alabama can force enough long fields and third downs to keep scoring down. As we’ve already noted, the Hoosiers aren’t overwhelming with explosives across the field, but they are efficient monsters. I think Bama can at least do enough in this area.
The defense is strong in the areas that matter against an efficient offense. They are negative in EPA allowed against both the pass and run, and they've been especially competent against the pass (negative 0.10 EPA allowed per pass).
If Alabama can take away quick explosives and make Indiana string together 10- and 12-play drives, the total gets squeezed by red-zone outcomes and field goals.
On the other side, Indiana’s defense also keeps the overall point total low: they rank in the Top 10 for EPA allowed per play and suppress snaps. We’ve already painted the picture in this matchup where Alabama can’t run the ball, which forces Ty Simpson into mistakes or sacks. That’s a good storyline to have when playing the Under.
Alabama vs Indiana odds
- Alabama vs. Indiana spread: Indiana -7
- Alabama vs. Indiana moneyline: Alabama +200, Indiana -250
- Alabama vs. Indiana Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Alabama vs Indiana
- Alabama vs. Indiana matchup
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026, 4:00 p.m. ET
- City: Pasadena, CA
- Venue: Rose Bowl
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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