Thursday night college football returns in a tightly lined matchup between Rice and Charlotte. Both teams grabbed wins last week and will look to keep it rolling on Thursday.
We’ve identified our three best prop bets for this nationally televised matchup in my Rice vs. Charlotte predictions and props for Thursday, September 12.
Rice vs Charlotte props for Week 4
Mason o43.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jenkins anytime touchdown (+135)- Harrell o200.5 passing yards (-114)
Prop bet #1: E. Jai Mason Over 43.5 receiving yards
Coming off his best game of the short season so far, I’m backing E. Jai Mason to continue his recent play. The senior is coming off an absolutely ridiculous game with 10 catches and over 200 yards in a win against Monmouth.
Am I expecting a repeat here? Not exactly, but that performance did illustrate his explosiveness, which has been a particular issue for the Rice Owls so far this season.
Rice comes into this matchup ranking in the Bottom 34th percentile in pass explosiveness allowed. We’ll expand on it in a bit, but the Charlotte 49ers have already shown the willingness multiple times this season to push the ball upfield and pursue vertical threats. Mason is simply the best option for this.
Prop bet #2: Chase Jenkins anytime touchdown
The position may be listed as quarterback, but Chase Jenkins has very much been used as a tailback who sometimes decides — at least so far this season. And that’s what makes a price point like this intriguing.
The Charlotte rushing defense has not been good this season. They’ve faced a variety of opponents in terms of skill set, but it hasn’t mattered; they’ve been run on.
Coming into this game, it’s a group with virtually a non-existent stuff rate (Bottom 5th percentile) and ranks in the 100s in total rushing EPA allowed. Jenkins should be the first player to directly profit from this. With double-digit carries in every game this season, he’s scored a touchdown in two of his three starts.
The sheer volume is a huge positive for this prop, but there’s also not a player trusted more in the red zone, which is where that putrid stuff rate is most likely to show up.
Prop bet #3: Conner Harrell Over 200.5 passing yards
This directly piggybacks off the Mason play above because a number like this is simply too low when you consider the matchup.
Conner Harrell has eclipsed this number just once, and it came last week when he threw for nearly 400 yards against Monmouth. Rice is a far better team than Monmouth, but they’re closer to them than UNC or Appalachian State, the other two opponents Harrell has faced and failed to exceed this number against.
With a 3-point spread and personal projections closely aligned, I expect this to be a competitive matchup, which means there may be situations where Charlotte is forced to chase the game. I’ll take my chances at such a low number with an offense that has flashed its explosiveness against a defense that has struggled with that exact thing.
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