Expectations haven't been this low for the Purdue Boilermakers in a long time.
Purdue went 2-10 overall in 2025, including an 0-9 mark in Big Ten play. It was the program's worst conference record in the dataset, and the second straight season the Boilermakers finished with four or fewer wins.
Here's a look at the recent history of Purdue win totals, along with predictions on whether the Boilermakers will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 3.5:
Purdue 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 3.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 3.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 3.5 | 🟡 |
| Dustin Schutte | Purdue Boilermakers on SI | OVER 3.5 | 🟢 |
| Andrew Ledman | Hammer and Rails | OVER 3.5 | ⚪ |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I like head coach Barry Odom but he has inherited a mess and has to start over again in year two with only seven returning starters.
The Boilermakers might be favored in only one game this year.
Rob Paul
There looks to be no reprieve for Purdue fans anytime soon, with Barry Odom’s Boilermakers playing the 19th-toughest schedule in terms of SOS (.591) and only having one non-Power 4 game this season.
Once again, Odom will be hoping a few transfer additions make the difference, but that’s going to be tough with a portal class ranked outside the top 40. Purdue is slated to start a half dozen transfers on each side of the ball this season, and outside of Mister Clark (FIU), Elo Modozie (Georgia), and Bisi Owens (Penn), there isn’t much to be excited about with this roster.
While QB Ryan Browne is back, that shouldn’t inspire much confidence after he accounted for more turnover-worthy plays (17) than touchdowns (13) last year.
Colby Marchio
The Big Ten's punching bag will be just as bad as it was a year ago.
Sure, Purdue had a few close losses during their two-win season in 2025, but I just do not see where four wins are coming from on this schedule. Indiana State should be an easy win, but I think they fall to Wake Forest in Week 2. That is saying something considering I am not even that high on the 2026 Demon Deacons, who are coming off a season where they won a lot of close games.
Based on the schedule alone, I see two to three wins at most. That is even with them bringing in 53 new players. To me, that is a lot of turnover for a team trying to learn an entirely new system in one of the toughest conferences in the country.
(I know there are really just two conferences now... let me live in the past.)
📰 Purdue media win total predictions
Dustin Schutte, Purdue Boilermakers on SI
Purdue returns its starting quarterback in Ryan Browne and upgraded at every position in the offseason. The offensive line is deeper, there are more playmakers at wide receiver and the running back room has four guys who can carry the football.
Defensively, Purdue has more length and speed and looks bigger in the trenches. Pair all that with a lighter schedule, and this team could easily push to five or six wins.
Andrew Ledman, Hammer and Rails
I suppose if I have to make a decision I’ll go with over 3.5 but just barely over.
I’m landing at four wins because I think Purdue can do just enough to get there. Last year despite only having two wins they played a lot of teams close. Yes, that’s small solace when you come away with an L, but I think there’s enough improved talent to get to four though my confidence is low for sure.
Purdue win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Purdue historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5 | +175 | -220 | 2 | Under |
| 2024 | 4.5 | +140 | -165 | 1 | Under |
| 2023 | 4.5 | -135 | +115 | 4 | Under |
| 2022 | 7.5 | +115 | -140 | 8 | Over |
| 2021 | 5 | -145 | +120 | 8 | Over |
| 2019 | 7 | +110 | -130 | 4 | Under |
| 2018 | 6 | +120 | -140 | 6 | Push |
| 2008 | 7 | NA | NA | 4 | Under |
| 2005 | 8.5 | -170 | +140 | 5 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- Under is the dominant result: Purdue has gone Under its win total six times in nine graded seasons, with just two Overs and one push – the clearest Under lean of any Big Ten program in this dataset aside from Nebraska.
- Three straight Unders entering 2026: The Boilermakers have missed their win total in each of the last three graded seasons, finishing with four wins or fewer in all three.
- Over is a big-time value play: Purdue as a perennial underachiever has led to sustained value on the Over bet. This year marks the third in a row (and sixth in the past eight seasons) that the Boilermakers' Over carries plus odds. Then again, there's a good reason for that.
How Purdue win totals are priced
Being in the midst of a full rebuild isn't going to endear the Boilermakers to Over bettors, and neither is a typically daunting Big Ten schedule.
Avoiding Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan is certainly a plus, but having Notre Dame show up on its non-conference schedule is definitely not. And there's still the usual cast of tough characters in Big Ten play, including UCLA, Washington, a Penn State team primed to bounce back, and a regular-season finale in Indiana.
The Boilermakers' Big Ten win total is installed at 2.5, but the Over is trading at +150 while the Under is set at -180.
Look away, season ticket holders: Purdue is a dreadful 6-14 ATS in its previous three campaigns at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Purdue win total FAQs
Will Purdue make the CFP?
Purdue is listed at +50000 to reach the 2026-27 playoff, effectively the longest odds of any program in this series.
What is Purdue's projected win total?
The Boilermakers' win total sits at 3.5 for 2026, with the Over at +120 and the Under at -140.
Who is Purdue's starting QB?
Redshirt junior Ryan Browne is slated to start the season as Purdue's QB1. He threw for 2,153 yards with nine TDs and 10 interceptions a season ago.
What is the most notable Purdue win total trend?
The Boilermakers are the only team in the conference with a win total south of 5 in four straight seasons.
What's the best bet for Purdue this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER on Purdue's win total is a unanimous play. Boilermakers media members, on the other hand, are considerably more optimistic.
