The Ohio State Buckeyes enter 2026 as one of the most feared programs in college football, and one of the most consistent win total Overs in the sport.
Ohio State went 12-1 overall with a perfect 9-0 mark in Big Ten play in 2025, continuing a run of dominance that has made the Buckeyes a perennial Over contender regardless of the number. But there's a little more intrigue surrounding the Buckeyes in 2026, at least when it comes to the Vegas win total, which sits at its lowest mark since 2016.
Here's a look at the recent history of Ohio State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Buckeyes will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 9.5:
Ohio State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 9.5 | 🟢 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 9.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 9.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Ohio State returns eight starters on offense led by All-American wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, the most talented player in college football. The Buckeyes do play five Top 15 teams. However, it’s been 15 years since they lost three games in a regular season.
Rob Paul
Although Ohio State’s schedule is No. 2 in SOS (.646), there’s just no justifiable reason for the Buckeyes' win total to be set at 9.5 instead of 10.5. The only two seasons Ohio State has won fewer than 10 games in the last 20 years were the pandemic-shortened season and the season following “tattoogate.” Ryan Day (.872) has a higher career winning percentage than Urban Meyer (.854).
While one of the biggest changes is Arthur Smith stepping in as offensive coordinator, the Buckeyes are No. 8 in returning offensive production (71%). They bring back the best player in the country (Jeremiah Smith), one of the best QBs (Julian Sayin), one of the most experienced offensive lines, and one of the top running backs (Bo Jackson).
The defense reloaded with five top-70 players from the transfer portal to team up with returning stars like Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Jaylen McClain. The Buckeyes also have several former blue-chip recruits poised to break out in Year 2 under Matt Patricia.
Colby Marchio
Not only do I have them losing to Texas in Week 2, with the Longhorns getting their revenge, but I also do not see them coming through their three-game stretch of Indiana, USC, and hosting Oregon at the beginning of November undefeated.
Not to mention, they have to travel to Iowa City and take on the Hawkeyes on Oct. 3. This is an extremely difficult schedule for any program, and I think it will be fascinating to see how the Buckeyes handle it.
Maybe it is because I am not the biggest Ryan Day fan, but I think there could be some value on the under 9.5 at +140.
Ohio State win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Ohio State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.5 | +120 | -145 | 11 | Over |
| 2024 | 10.5 | -175 | +145 | 10 | Under |
| 2023 | 10.5 | -110 | -110 | 11 | Over |
| 2022 | 11 | -140 | +115 | 11 | Push |
| 2021 | 11 | -115 | -105 | 10 | Under |
| 2019 | 10 | -110 | -110 | 12 | Over |
| 2018 | 10.5 | -110 | -110 | 11 | Over |
| 2017 | 11 | -115 | -105 | 10 | Under |
| 2016 | 9.5 | -160 | +140 | 11 | Over |
| 2015 | 11.5 | -125 | +105 | 11 | Under |
| 2013 | 11 | +130 | -165 | 12 | Over |
| 2012 | 9 | -160 | +125 | 12 | Over |
| 2011 | 9 | +150 | -190 | 6 | Under |
| 2010 | 10.5 | -105 | -125 | 11 | Over |
| 2009 | 9.5 | -130 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2008 | 10 | NA | NA | 10 | Push |
| 2006 | 10 | -120 | +100 | 12 | Over |
| 2005 | 9 | +110 | -140 | 9 | Push |
🔑 Key Takeaways
- THE worst Under play in the Big Ten: A multitude of crowd-rankling pushes might tamp down Ohio State's overall Over conversion record, so we'll go with the Under trend instead. In a word, don't. The Buckeyes have converted the Under just five times in 18 graded seasons since 2005, the lowest conversion rate in the conference.
- Getting push-y: Not a fan of win totals portrayed as whole numbers? Neither are most bettors, especially those who have seen the Buckeyes push on their win totals three times over the past 20+ years. It happened most recently in 2022, when O11 bettors were given their money back because Ohio State lost one game.
- Not much value on the Over: Sportsbooks know how much bettors love any bet that starts with an O – and that has been especially true with OSU win thresholds. Last year marked the first time since 2013 that an Ohio State win total carried plus-money odds, and that streak has come to an abrupt end in 2026.
How Ohio State win totals are priced
The Buckeyes' win threshold (and corresponding odds) has created a bit of a conundrum for Over bettors.
Ohio State at 9.5 regular-season wins feels like easy money given the program's history of dominance, but at -166, the value has been almost completely wrung out. On the flip side, bettors can get the O10.5 at a healthy +170, but do they have the stomach to bank on the Buckeyes earning 11 regular-season victories in 2026?
The schedule is as challenging as it gets for any Big Ten team, with Oregon, Indiana and Michigan waiting and a non-conference date with host Texas on the 2026 ledger. As difficult as it usually is to find three losses on the Ohio State calendar, this year might be its most challenging in years.
Fresh off that 9-0 record in conference play a year ago, the Buckeyes carry a Big Ten win total of 7.5 into this season, with the Over at +115 and the Under at -136.
Ohio State's biggest win total beat in this dataset came in 2012, when the Buckeyes were set at just nine wins and went a perfect 12-0 in the regular season – a three-game overperformance that stands as the largest margin in their 18-year win total history here.
Ohio State win total FAQs
Will Ohio State make the CFP?
Ohio State is one of the top favorites to reach the 2026-27 playoff, priced at -400; the Buckeyes rank second only to Notre Dame (-800) among all programs.
What is Ohio State's projected win total?
The Buckeyes' win total sits at 9.5 for 2026, with the Over at -166 and the Under at +140.
Who is Ohio State's starting QB?
Julian Sayin returns as the Buckeyes' QB1 following a sensational showing in 2025, in which he threw for 3,610 yards with 32 touchdowns.
What is the most notable Ohio State win total trend?
Ohio State has gone Over its win total nine times in 18 graded seasons, with four pushes and just five Unders. And three of those Unders came in years when the total was set at an exceptionally demanding 11 wins or higher.
What's the best bet for Ohio State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, Ohio State's OVER is the preferred option (with Colby Marchio the lone holdout).
