There’s nothing quite like the emerging college football player prop market, which continues to expand with new offerings every week.
Week 6 is no exception as there are plenty of appealing plays available, especially in the evening slate of games.
Here are my three favorite player prop college football picks for the night games on Saturday, October 4.
Best college football player props for Week 6 late games
Amare Thomas Over 39.5 receiving yards (-114)
Fluff Bothwell Over 60.5 rushing yards (-114)
Josiah Freeman Over 40.5 receiving yards (-114)
Prop bet #1: Amare Thomas Over 39.5 receiving yards
The Houston Cougars are typically a team that wants to keep the ball on the ground, evidenced by their national ranking in rush rate (22nd). The thing is, they haven’t found much room to work with, resulting in the second-worst EPA per rush. Things won’t get any easier in Week 6 against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Known for what seems like forever for a faulty defense, the Red Raiders have fixed those long-term woes in 2025. They lead the nation in both EPA per play and success rate allowed, limiting teams to 3.7 yards per play. They have a dominant line built through the portal that leads the country in line yards (Houston 124th offensively), so the Cougars won’t find room to run in Lubbock.
That will force the passing attack to step up. UAB transfer Amare Thomas has been the most-targeted (19) wide receiver on the team, responding with 214 yards and a respectable 1.9 yards per route run. One would expect an uptick in volume due to a floundering ground game, especially with the game script projected to include the Cougars playing from behind as 11.5-point underdogs.
- Matchup: Texas Tech vs. Houston
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 4 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: TDECU Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Prop bet #2: Fluff Bothwell Over 60.5 receiving yards
Fluff Bothwell doesn’t just have one of the coolest names in the sport; he’s also a human wrecking ball who is quite the chore for opposing defenses to bring to the turf. If you didn’t know Fluff’s name before, you probably do now after he took 23 carries for 134 yards and two scores against Tennessee a week ago.
Fluff is now up to 101.3 rushing yards per game and is seeing his workload increase every game for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Now that he has the complete trust of the coaching staff and is entrenched as the team’s RB1, he’s locked into a productive role.
This shouldn’t be classified as an easy matchup against the Texas A&M Aggies, but there are still some things to like.
Both the Aggies (19th in tempo) and the Bulldogs (23rd) play with tremendous pace, meaning there should be a boatload of snaps in this contest, creating more opportunity for the skill position players to see volume.
While the Aggies have a salty defense on the surface, a closer inspection reveals that they have trouble tackling (119th per PFF). This leads to an inordinate amount of explosive runs (134th nationally).
Fluff is a powerful runner averaging 3.8 yards after contact per attempt, so he stands a good chance of capitalizing on A&M’s tackling deficiencies. The Aggies have allowed three running backs to eclipse 60.5 rushing yards through four games, and I’m betting on Fluff adding to that total.
- Matchup: Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 4 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kyle Field
- TV: SEC Network
Prop bet #3: Josiah Freeman Over 40.5 receiving yards
Josiah Freeman is a wideout whom multiple staff members for the Fresno State Bulldogs have praised, but the production hasn’t matched the hype due to a slew of injuries. The current staff has mentioned that he has NFL potential, so we should start to see Freeman make some noise in Mountain West play.
I can tell you exactly where the bookmakers got this number of 40.5 receiving yards — and then tell you why they’re wrong. He’s averaging 42.5 receiving yards per game, so the books are essentially expecting more of the same, with a slight decrease in the number to entice a few bets.
That lacks all context. Freeman was injured early in the Oregon State game, racking up 76 receiving yards in the first half before essentially being shut down. He played at less than 100% the following week against Hawai’i and underproduced, catching just three passes for 22 yards.
His numbers would’ve been better in both contests if he were healthy, which would’ve led to the books posting an inflated number in Week 6. Well, reports are that he’s now 100% after the bye week, so he should resume his role as the clear-cut WR1 in this passing attack. In a matchup with the Nevada Wolfpack (93rd in coverage grade per PFF), Freeman should lead the Fresno receiving corps.
- Matchup: Nevada vs. Fresno State
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 4 at 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Valley Children's Stadium
- TV: CBSSN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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