Week 5 has arrived, which means there’s a bevy of college football player props on the board for bettors to sift through.
Who will find success in the two big night games, Alabama vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. Penn State? And will LaNorris Sellers get back on track in a favorable matchup?
My college football picks for the NCAAF night games on Saturday, September 27 answer those questions.
Best college football player props for Week 5 late games
Frazier o53.5 rush yds (-114)
Reynolds o32.5 rec yds (-114)
Sellers anytime TD (-115)
Prop bet #1: Nate Frazier Over 53.5 rushing yards
One of the marquee games of the weekend goes down at night when the Alabama Crimson Tide face the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. One player who should have success is Georgia running back Nate Frazier, who is listed with a rushing yardage prop of 53.5.
Frazier is averaging 63 yards per game as the top weapon in the ground game for the Bulldogs. He’s averaging 3.3 yards after contact per attempt and should be relied upon as a trusted playmaker in a massive tilt.
Alabama has shown weakness on the ground, ranking 95th in EPA per rush and 94th in tackling (per PFF). The defensive line has failed to get much push (107th in line yards, 109th in stuff rate), so there should be lanes for Frazier to exploit before forcing would-be tacklers to miss.
The Bulldogs rank 19th in rushing success rate, so they should rely upon the ground game in this matchup.
The Crimson Tide haven’t been perfect in coverage this season, but the strength of the defense will likely end up being the secondary. That should mean that Frazier gets his allotment of touches en route to picking up yardage on the ground.
- Matchup: Alabama vs. Georgia
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 27 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
- TV: ABC
Prop bet #2: Luke Reynolds Over 32.5 receiving yards
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Penn State Nittany Lions have a productive tight end. It’s become a yearly staple for Penn State, and this year’s go-to option at the position is Luke Reynolds.
The sophomore is coming off a two-game stretch in which he caught 11 passes for 131 yards. He leads the team in yards per route run (2.41) and appears poised for a successful season as a trusted member of the passing attack.
We know that quarterback Drew Allar loves to target his tight end because he did so 135 times to Tyler Warren last season. While Warren’s output is irreplaceable (1,233 receiving yards and eight scores), there’s a gaping void in production left to be filled.
A win over the Oregon Ducks won’t be easy, and Penn State will need to rely on its best weapons to get the job done. As a former five-star recruit, Reynolds possesses the requisite talent to come through on the big stage.
- Matchup: Oregon vs. Penn State
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 27 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- TV: NBC
Prop bet #3: LaNorris Sellers anytime TD
It’s been a faulty start for the South Carolina Gamecocks, who have now dropped consecutive games to move to 2-2 on the year. A home game against the Kentucky Wildcats may be just what the doctor ordered.
Kentucky hasn’t been able to get into opposing backfields, ranking 112th in front seven havoc. The Wildcats are a poor tackling team (92nd per PFF), which could be trouble against a rushing threat like LaNorris Sellers.
A preseason Heisman hopeful, Sellers hasn’t been able to get it done on the ground with 17 rushing yards and a single rushing score. He won’t stay down for long.
This is an elite dual threat we’re talking about, one of the most electric players in the sport who racked up 674 rushing yards and seven rushing scores a year ago.
The Gamecocks don’t have much of a traditional ground game as their leading running back, Rahsul Faison, averages 35 rushing yards per game. Sellers will be counted on to get things moving by himself, and it’s the right matchup for him to find success.
Kentucky struggles to create havoc up front and to tackle opposing ball carriers, making this a prime spot for Sellers to create with his legs and find the end zone.
- Matchup: Kentucky vs. South Carolina
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 27 at 7:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
- TV: SEC Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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