The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes look to remain undefeated as they host the Penn State Nittany Lions as 20.5-point favorites in Week 10.
Although it’s been far from pretty for the Nittany Lions, they’ll aim to keep things close by shortening the clock and relying on a talented defense.
See where I’m leaning with my Penn State vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
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Penn State vs Ohio State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Penn State vs Ohio State spread pick: Penn State +20.5
Just how wide can this line get? It’s gone about as far as it can for a program that still has as much talent as the Penn State Nittany Lions, in my opinion, so I’ll bite the bullet and buy low on the country’s most disappointing team.
PSU has covered the spread once in seven tries, whereas the Ohio State Buckeyes are 6-0-1 ATS. It’s understandable why the line is so inflated, as the oddmakers feel like they can’t make a spread wide enough for either team at this current juncture.
That signals to me it’s a buy spot on the underdog, regardless of how ugly it seems. The Nittany Lions rank 32nd in success rate on offense and will hope to keep the chains moving and the clock ticking, with a steady dose of running back Kaytron Allen.
On the flip side, PSU’s biggest defensive weakness has been stopping the ground game (103rd in EPA per rush allowed). Ohio State hasn’t gotten its ground game going, ranking 108th in EPA per rush while offering almost no big-play threat (134th in rushing explosiveness).
Here’s betting on an ugly, low-scoring game where PSU falls within the number.
Early Penn State vs Ohio State total pick: Under 43.5
Ethan Grunkemeyer didn’t exactly light the world on fire in place of Drew Allar against Iowa, throwing for 93 yards on 28 attempts (3.3 yards per attempt) with two interceptions and no touchdowns. He’ll be hard-pressed to find much success against a nasty Ohio State defense that allows just 216.9 total yards per game on 3.8 yards per play.
Ohio State has been a very effective offense (third in success rate), but it hasn’t been explosive (125th in explosiveness). The Nittany Lions excel defensively when they shut down big plays (fourth in explosiveness), so they’ll aim to keep things in front of them to keep the game within reach.
Other than the UCLA disaster (435 total yards allowed), PSU hasn’t been bad on defense. Facing an Ohio State offense that is very good — but perhaps not the death star version we’ve seen in years past with this program — the Nittany Lions have it in them to limit the scoring output of their opponent.
This has tended to be a low-scoring matchup as eight of the last 10 meetings between these two schools have resulted in an Under. The stylistic matchup leads this bettor to believe another low-scoring game is in the forecast.
Penn State vs Ohio State odds
- Penn State vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State +20.5
- Penn State vs. Ohio State moneyline: Penn State +1000, Ohio State -1800
- Penn State vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Penn State vs Ohio State
- Penn State vs. Ohio State matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Columbus, OH
- Venue: Ohio Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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