The 121st meeting of the Red River Rivalry between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns is the first as SEC rivals.
The Longhorns are an early-3.5-point favorite, and my early Texas vs. Oklahoma Red River Rivalry predictions expect Arch Manning and the Longhorns to sneak past a banged-up Sooners group.
Read on for my early college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Oklahoma vs Texas predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Oklahoma vs Texas spread pick: Texas -3.5
This year’s Red River Rivalry sets up as a statement game for the Texas Longhorns, whose defense continues to play championship-level football despite the offense's inability to keep up.
The Longhorns rank among the nation’s best in rushing yards allowed and have surrendered just three passing touchdowns all season.
Their front seven should control the line of scrimmage and force Oklahoma Sooners' inexperienced quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. into mistakes.
With John Mateer and Keontez Lewis sidelined, the Sooners lack the firepower to continually sustain drives for 60 minutes against a Texas defense that thrives on third-down stops and has allowed 10 points or fewer in three of their five games.
Offensively, Arch Manning has matured into a steady playmaker with 16 total touchdowns, and his growing chemistry with Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone gives Texas enough explosiveness to beat Oklahoma.
I’m expecting the Longhorns’ defense to shine, and Manning and the offense to get back on track vs. OU.
Early Oklahoma vs Texas total pick: Over 42.5
The 42.5-point total in the Red River Rivalry offers sneaky value despite both defenses’ strong statistical resumes.
Oklahoma has stifled the run all year, and Texas has been nearly impossible to throw against. But rivalries typically produce big plays, and this year’s Red River Rivalry could offer us a shootout in the Cotton Bowl.
Manning’s versatility to extend plays and ability to create big plays downfield should lead to points against an Oklahoma defense that hasn’t seen this type of versatile explosiveness.
Oklahoma may not beat Texas, but it's coming off a 44-point outing against Kent State with Hawkins under center. He looked confident, and OU can put points on the board against Texas.
Three of the previous five Red River Rivalry games have gone over the total, and I’m leaning that this one does as well.
Oklahoma vs Texas odds
- Oklahoma vs. Texas spread: Texas -3.5
- Oklahoma vs. Texas moneyline: Oklahoma +128, Texas -154
- Oklahoma vs. Texas Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Oklahoma vs Texas
- Oklahoma vs. Texas matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Dallas, TX
- Venue: Cotton Bowl
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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